Fuel keeps South African March inflation muted
Without the fuel levy reduction, the petrol price would have soared by 21.9% year-on-year and the diesel price by 49.6% year-on-year.
Black News 
The 8.7% year-on-year decline in fuel prices in March kept South African consumer inflation muted. The overall consumer inflation rate rose marginally to 3.1% year-on-year in March from 3.0% year-on-year in February.
The reason for the decline in fuel prices in March is that they reflect the oil price in February. This is because South Africa adjusts its fuel prices once a month on the first Wednesday of the month. The adjustment is based on the average price in the previous month.
Other countries adjust their fuel prices on a daily and in rare cases even hourly.
Fuel price pain to come in April
In April the fuel prices will jump. This will be due to higher international petroleum product prices as well as a weaker rand against the US dollar.
The rand weakened against the US Dollar in April compared with March. The average rand/US Dollar exchange rate for the period 27 February 2026 to 26 March 2026 was R16.6429/US$1 compared with R15.9959/US$1 during the previous period.
The average international price for petrol rose by approximately R5.26 per litre. The increase for diesel was approximately R9.36 per litre. To ease the pain for South African consumers, the minister of finance announced a R3 per litre reduction in the fuel levy.
This reduction lasts until the next monthly price adjustment on 6 May 2026.
Without the fuel levy reduction, the petrol price would have soared by 21.9% year-on-year and the diesel price by 49.6% year-on-year. Accordingly, the fuel levy cut meant that the petrol price rose by 8.0% year-on-year and the diesel price by 34.1% year-on-year. This is for prices in Gauteng.
March detail
The data from Statistics South Africa painted a mixed picture in the March detail.
Goods inflation eased to 1.8% year-on-year in March from 1.9% year-on-year in February, 2.7% year-on-year in January and 3.0% year-on-year in December.
On the other hand, services inflation rose to 4.2% year-on-year in March from 3.8% year-on-year in February after being steady at 4.2% year-on-year in January and December.
Meat prices continued their easing trend. They eased to 11.6% y/y in March from 12.2% year-on-year in February and a 13.5% year-on-year jump in January. This easing should continue later this year as authorities curb the spread of foot and mouth disease.
This is good news as consumers normally spend more on meat than they do on fuel. This is why meat has a 5.1% weight in the consumer price basket, while fuel has a 3.8% share. That is why fuel prices kept overall consumer inflation muted in March.
Overall food inflation slipped to 3.4% year-on-year in March from 3.7% year-on-year in February after being steady at 4.4% year-on-year for three consecutive months.
The trimmed mean measure, which excludes volatile prices, was steady at 2.4% year-on-year in March and February from 2.7% year-on-year in January. Some central banks use this as their inflation target measure as it is less volatile. Other central banks prefer a core measure that excludes food and energy. This measure was 3.3% year-on-year in March.
