Why key opposition figures fled Uganda

At least five senior opposition figures have in the recent months fled the country for exile, citing threats to their lives.

First it was Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, the President of the National Unity Platform (NUP), the biggest opposition political party. Kyagulanyi fled the country for the USA in late January following the Presidential election, in which Yoweri Kaguta Museveni was declared the winner with 71.65 per cent of the vote.

Second was Ssemujju Ibrahim Nganda, the People’s Front for Freedom Secretary General. Ssemujju left the country on June 17, after he was threatened to be taken to the ‘basement’ by the Chief of Defence Forces, Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba.

The basement is another name that has been given to safe houses where political opponents are incarcerated and reportedly tortured. Ssemujju refuses to disclose where he is, currently.

Then came Eron Kiiza, one of the lawyers of Dr Kizza Besigye. Kiiza was released recently following his imprisonment on the orders of the General Court Martial, for contempt of court.

Winnie Kiiza, the former leader of the opposition in Parliament and former Woman MP for Kasese district has also fled the country, The Observer has learnt. According to reliable sources, in recent days, soldiers had been seen lurking around Kiiza’s home, prompting concerns over her safety.

Kiiza was very vocal in calling out the actions of the security after the kidnapping of women rights activist Maria Matembe. Also, Dr Lina Zedriga Waru, the deputy president of NUP has, according to reliable sources, left Uganda.

Zedriga has reportedly been under constant surveillance since her release from prison, following her arrest during the 2026 general elections. After the January election, there has been an uptick in the crackdown on opposition figures.

Other than those in exile, four prominent figures are also in prison for crimes ranging from terrorism to treason and misprision of treason. Those in prison include, Dr Kizza Besigye, who was kidnapped in November 2024 from Kenya.

He has been charged, alongside his political aide Haji Obeid Lutale, with treason and misprision of treason. Former Lord Mayor of Kampala Erias Lukwago was also arrested in June and charged with misprision of treason. Lukwago was one of the leading lawyers for Besigye and Lutale.

The other opposition figure in prison is Muhammad Muwanga-Kivumbi, the deputy president of NUP and former Butambala county MP. Kivumbi is being charged with terrorism following violence that erupted in Butambala after the disputed parliamentary elections that saw him lose his seat to Eriasa Mukiibi Sserunjogi.

Seven people were shot dead at Kivumbi’s home. He was released last month on bail, only to be rearrested the following day on charges of inciting violence and holding an unlawful assembly. Ssemujju told the media at the weekend, he had decided to stay away from Uganda until he is guaranteed of his safety.

“I left Uganda to go and perform umrah in Saudi Arabia, but after the umrah, I had to make a decision whether to return or not. You remember by the time I left, Muhoozi had promised to take me to a basement to torture me. Maybe after that, they would charge me in court and then send me to Luzira or Kitalya. The question then was, am I useful while in prison or the basement, or when I’m free even if I’m not in the country?” Ssemujju said.

“But what I can assure you, I will come back to Uganda, because it’s the only home I have. I also want to make a commitment to continue making a contribution to the betterment of the situation at home.”

The Observer was unable to reach Dr Zedriga, but a close friend of hers confirmed her decision to stay away, for now.

“It has not been easy for her for the last few months. She has been under constant surveillance and she has taken a decision to stay away from Uganda until such a time when she feels safe,” the friend, who asked not to be named for her own safety, said.

For his part, Eron Kiiza, who last week the state sought to prosecute for breaking the sub judice rule after he allegedly commented about the merits of the ongoing case against Dr Besigye, said he had to prioritize his safety.

“The state of affairs is dire, uncertain and dangerous. Rule of law has been replaced by capricious militarism,” Kiiza said.

However, Kiiza said that not everybody who engaged in challenging President Museveni’s government should flee.

“If you can work quietly, or count on your luck, stay. If you can sing power praises, you may be safe. If you are outspokenly critical and can stomach threats, fear, detention, abduction and business or professional sabotage, you can stay. If you want to be loudly critical and still have liberty, flee before it is too late. We are off the rails and everyone is figuring out the answer. History may be a guide,” Kiiza said.

“Some people are more useful to the struggle abroad than at home. Most people will contribute better in exile than in the basement or prison. How I wish Lukwago and Sam Mugumya were in exile rather than in arbitrary, torturous and life-threatening detention. People in exile can contribute ideas, money and contacts, which are the lifeblood of any serious struggle.”

David Lewis Rubongoya, the Secretary General of NUP said history is repeating itself in Uganda.

“It is very unfortunate that people are fleeing into exile. We used to read about these things during the regime of Idi Amin, now we are witnessing them first-hand. What is most disappointing is that, it is our commanders who are being forced out. What I know for a fact is that wherever they are, they are still engaged in the struggle. We must not lose hope for us who are still here, we must keep pushing so that our country is liberated,” Rubongoya said.

President Museveni has not talked about these increasing cases of opposition figures fleeing to exile. Efforts to speak to Justine Kasule Lumumba, the minister of ICT and National Guidance were futile as she neither picked nor returned calls and messages to her known numbers.

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