Tshabangu should stop deceiving himself: he doesn’t have any leverage on CAB3

Tendai Ruben Mbofana

Sengezo Tshabangu’s spokesperson, Nqobizitha Mlilo, recently raised eyebrows across the political spectrum by threatening a “nuclear option” if ZANU-PF stalls on whatever backroom deal they are currently haggling over. 

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Mlilo boldly declared, “We are fully prepared to deploy our definitive political leverage.” 

It is a grand, sweeping statement that evokes images of high-stakes political maneuvering, but it is ultimately built on a foundation of sand. 

Tshabangu shouldn’t deceive himself: he doesn’t have any leverage on CAB3.

The delusion of grandeur currently consuming Tshabangu’s camp stems from a basic numbers game in parliament. 

With Constitutional Amendment (No. 3) Bill, CAB3, having successfully cleared the House of Assembly last week, the battlefield has moved to the 80-seat Senate. 

Here, on paper, ZANU-PF is technically vulnerable. 

The ruling party holds only 51 seats—33 directly elected on its ticket, with the remainder being traditional leaders who generally, though not always autonomously, vote with the state. 

To reach the holy grail of a two-thirds majority required to alter the supreme law, ZANU-PF needs three more votes. 

Tshabangu, in his self-important estimation, believes he holds the remote control to those three votes. 

He imagines himself as the kingmaker, a sophisticated political broker whom the ruling party must beg, appease, and reward to get the legislation across the finish line.

But there is a fatal flaw in Tshabangu’s calculus, and it is a tragedy of his own making. 

He appears to completely overlook the terrible precedent he himself set. 

The thing about political precedent is that it has a nasty habit of turning around to bite the very person who established it.

Cast your mind back to 2023. 

Driven by an obvious appetite for personal gain and relevance, Tshabangu initiated a rabid, chaotic recall of elected opposition parliamentarians. 

In doing so, he single-handedly gifted ZANU-PF the two-thirds majority in the House of Assembly that the Zimbabwean electorate had explicitly denied them at the polls. 

By usurping power from the legitimate opposition leadership, he sent a loud, clear message to the entire political ecosystem: institutional authority means nothing, and raw self-interest can override any leadership structure.

Now, that exact same precedent is about to play out in the Senate, and Tshabangu is the one who will be bypassed. 

ZANU-PF does not need to negotiate with a self-declared interim secretary general when they can simply go shopping for individual politicians. 

Why buy the whole bus when you can just pay for three seats?

We have already seen exactly how this movie plays out. 

Politically compromised tenderpreneurs like Wicknell Chivayo have spent months openly parading how easy it is to buy the loyalty of opposition parliamentarians with flashy cars and thick envelopes of cash. 

When opposition MPs voted in support of CAB3 in the House of Assembly last week, it wasn’t because they were dynamic loyalists following Tshabangu’s strategic directives. 

It was because they had their own immediate self-interests in mind. 

They were either protecting assets already received or auditioning to be “rewarded” in the next round of handouts. 

ZANU-PF didn’t need Tshabangu’s permission then, and they certainly don’t need it now.

The cold, hard reality is that Tshabangu’s usefulness to the ruling elite expired the moment he finished decimating the formal opposition. 

Once the destruction was complete, the state apparatus could directly manage and manipulate enough fractured opposition parliamentarians to fulfill their legislative goals without a middleman. 

If Tshabangu were to command his Senate block to vote against CAB3 tomorrow, he would be met with stunning disobedience. 

Does anyone honestly believe that a politician like Susan Matsunga—who was publicly gifted a vehicle and cash through Chivayo’s patronage network—voted for the bill in the House of Assembly because Tshabangu ordered her to, or would have defied that patronage if he had told her otherwise?

Of course not. 

Her allegiance belongs to the hand that feeds her, not a self-appointed interim secretary general who merely opened the door to the dining room.

I am actually surprised why the Tshabangu camp is perplexed by the total silence from ZANU-PF Secretary-General Jacob Mudenda regarding their threatened “nuclear option”.

It is a clear sign from the ruling party that they are now entirely irrelevant.

The ruling elite know fully well that to secure those three “magic” Senate votes, they do not need to concede an inch of real power to Tshabangu. 

They just need to dangle a few more keys and cash packages to vulnerable, unprincipled individuals who have realized that betrayal is a lucrative business in modern Zimbabwe.

Tshabangu needs to get this through his head: he has absolutely no leverage to talk about. 

He allowed himself to be used as a blunt instrument to fracture the alternative vote, and now that the demolition job is done, he is being discarded. 

It is a timeless lesson for anyone who chooses to betray the people for a temporary seat at the table. 

Tomorrow, the circus moves on and the puppet masters find new tools; those who sold out the electorate are left as nobodies. 

They will be left staring at the wreckage of their own credibility, wishing they had never crossed that line.

• Tendai Ruben Mbofana is a social justice advocate and writer. To directly receive his articles please join his WhatsApp Channel on: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VaqprWCIyPtRnKpkHe08