WHAT to expect: 2026 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement
The 2026 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement – South Africa’s mini budget – has been tabled for Wednesday 21 October.
Black News 
South Africans should mark their diary for the 2026 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement, tabled in Parliament on Wednesday 21 October. This date is closer to its usual slot after the National Treasury delivered last year’s statement only in mid-November.
You can think of it as the country’s financial health check between the big February Budget speeches. It mostly acts as an update on whether the Finance Minister’s promises and predictions are holding up for the year. Or if we need to tighten our collective bootstraps …
2026 MEDIUM-TERM BUDGET POLICY STATEMENT
As such, we’re not expecting fireworks for the 2026 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement. Because both global and local economies have turned on their head since the National Treasury’s mostly good-news Budget Speech back in February. As such, the picture heading into October 2026 is one of stabilisation rather than of breakthrough.
Growth forecasts for 2026 remain flat at 1.5% according to various economists. Debt is sitting around 77% of GDP, still the single biggest constraint on government coffers. The fiscal deficit is expected somewhere around 4.5% of GDP. And unemployment remains above 30%, barely moving the needle positively since the last Budget Speech.
IS THERE ANY GOOD NEWS?
On the plus side, South Africa has now gone more than 440 days without load shedding. And we’ve exited the FATF greylist, while picking up a ratings upgrade from S&P and others. Therefore, we can expect an update on how SARS collections are tracking under new leadership. As ever, the status of the public sector wage bill and SASSA grant increases will certainly be a recurring ‘elephant in the room.’
If last year was anything to go by, we don’t expect any bailout money for Transnet, Eskom, SABC or any other state-owned enterprise looking for a handout. The minster will make it clear in the 2026 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement that no taxpayer money is forthcoming unless there is a genuine reform plan attached to the request.
WHAT ABOUT SASSA GRANT INCREASES?
On the social-welfare front, all ‘core’ SASSA Grants and the “temporary” R370 SRD are already funded and confirmed at least until March 2027. This is despite Cosatu and civil justice groups’ continued push for an inflation-linked adjustment beyond 5%.
Like before, the 2026 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement will give a cursory mention to Basic Income Support, but without a firm commitment. Likewise, expect another vague update on National Health Insurance (NHI) or lack thereof. And infrastructure spending – via public-private partnerships – will likely get plenty of airtime.
At the end of the day, don’t expect fireworks. The real headline items people want to know about: Tax changes, future SASSA Grant increases, spending increases, etc, are typically saved for the February Budget …
But what do you think? What would you like to hear in the 2026 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement? Please share your thoughts in the comments section below …
