Why the Gambian opposition should rally behind the UDP

By Capt. (Rtd.) Ebou Jallow

1. The electoral system punishes a divided opposition

Since the constitutional amendment of the early 2000s, The Gambia elects its president by simple plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins, and there is no runoff. In a two-round system, opposition parties can run separately and combine in the second round. Here, in a first-past-the post contest every split vote helps the Nafoloo Pisirr Pasarr (NPP).

An incumbent with 40% can beat an opposition that has 60% split between four candidates. Under these rules, uniting is the only way to turn opposition support into victory.

2. 2016 shows that unity works

The 2016 coalition beat a 22-year regime that seemed impossible to remove. Barrow won with about 43% against Jammeh’s roughly 40%, with Mama Kandeh taking around 17%. The coalition won even without the GDC. With a fully united opposition, the margin would have been far larger.

The lesson Gambians already know: when the opposition unites, incumbents can be beaten.

3. The UDP is the obvious choice to lead

Political scientist Leonardo Arriola has shown that opposition coalitions in Africa succeed when they form around a focal party, one strong enough that others can rally behind it credibly. In The Gambia, that party is the UDP:

A. It came second in 2021, far ahead of every other opposition party.

B. It won 15 seats in 2022, the largest opposition group in the National Assembly.

C. It has the most developed national structure, with branches down to ward level.

D. It has 30 years of continuity. No other opposition party has survived as long or as consistently.

Building a coalition around a smaller party would mean building the machinery almost from scratch, months before an election.

4. The UDP has the core that wins campaigns (Price’s Square Root Law explains why Ousainou Darboe’s UDP is the dominant opposition party in the Gambia)

Campaigns are won by a small number of organizers, mobilisers and financiers, not by crowds. The UDP’s core has survived Jammeh-era repression, imprisonment and the defections that followed the Barrow split. Other parties would be joining a proven, battle-tested operation led by a seasoned politician rather than starting one with a political novice or an interloper.

5. Its credibility comes from resisting dictatorship

UDP leaders and activists were jailed, harassed and killed for opposing Jammeh. Solo Sandeng’s death in custody in 2016 helped spark the movement that ended the regime.

That history gives the UDP moral authority that newer parties cannot claim.

A coalition led by the UDP can present itself as continuing the 2016 promise of change, which many voters feel was not fully kept.

6. Unity reduces defections as the Peter Turchin’s arguments about elite overproduction have demonstrated

Politicians cross over because the opposition looks like it will lose and the incumbent controls all the positions. A united opposition that looks like it can win changes that calculation. Aspiring politicians have less reason to defect if the opposition might soon be handing out positions.

A divided opposition speeds up defections, because each small party looks hopeless on its own…and Essa Nafoloo’s lame excuses have sufficiently demonstrated this point.

A broad coalition can give every partner a stake through a clear MoU on cabinet posts, nominations and policy priorities. This offers ambitious politicians a route to office other than joining the ruling party.

7. Incumbency advantages need a united response

Sitting governments in The Gambia benefit from:

A. Control of state resources, appointments and development projects

B. Media visibility and the ability to set the agenda

C. The power to recruit opposition figures through appointments and other benefits

No single small party can match this. Only pooled resources, networks and volunteers can compete.

8. Unfinished reform needs a strong coalition

Many of the reforms promised after 2016 remain stalled, notably the draft constitution rejected by the National Assembly in 2020, with its presidential term limits and checks on executive power. A united opposition led by the UDP could make constitutional reform the shared program, giving the coalition a purpose beyond removing the incumbent.

Reducing presidential appointment powers would also tackle the winner-take-all system that drives defections. This means the permanent termination of zero-sum games in Gambian politics.

9. Fragmentation in politics wastes the opposition’s talent

Running separate campaigns means:

A. Duplicated costs for rallies, transport and media

B. Opposition parties attacking each other instead of the government

C. Each party’s best people spread too thin

Pooling them behind one campaign makes the opposition’s limited resources go much further.

Objections to this argument that the UDP must address

To persuade other parties, UDP supporters will need coherent answers to these issues:

A. The arithmetic is harder than in 2016 – In 2021, Barrow won about 53%, so the opposition combined would still have lost. Unity is necessary, but the coalition also needs to win over voters who backed the incumbent, not just add up existing opposition votes.

B. Trust after 2016 – The coalition MoU collapsed, and smaller parties fear being absorbed or sidelined again. They will want written, enforceable commitments on power-sharing.

C. Leadership and generational change – Some voters and parties question whether the UDP’s current leadership can win over younger voters and people outside its base. Being open about succession and visibly involving younger leaders would help.

D. Party identity – Smaller parties have their own principles and supporters. A coalition must respect their identity rather than demand they dissolve and assimilate.

E. The perception of a regional or ethnic base – Critics say the UDP’s support is concentrated in some regions and communities. Choosing leaders from across the country and across communities would strengthen the claim to be a national coalition.

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