Will formation of ANC task team in Eastern Cape boost Mbalula’s political ambitions?

Questions have been raised about ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula’s push to appoint a provincial task team (PTT) to lead the party in the Eastern Cape.

This comes after Mbalula on Thursday announced the final list of 40 PTT members. This team will be led by the Eastern Cape Premier Oscar Mabuyane, who is also Mbalula’s ally.

On Friday morning, The Citizen reported that the appointment of the PTT could have more to do with the ANC’s 2027 leadership race than with everyday provincial politics.

Mabuyane is expected to play a crucial role in Mbalula’s presidential ambitions, potentially delivering a large support base at the next national elective conference.

Before this, the PTT was formed. The ANC in that province was supposed to hold an elective conference in March, but it was interdicted by the High Court in East London, which found that the party had not followed its own procedures in convening the gathering.

This was expected to be a crucial conference for Mbalula, since his ally, Mabuyane, was going to go head-to-head with his opponent, Lulama Ngcukayitobi, for the chairpersonship of the province. Some reports indicate that Ngcukayitobi has since been relegated to the fringes in the new PTT.

What are Mbalula’s ambitions?

On Friday, Theo Neethling, a political analyst, told The Citizen that while Mbalula has been discouraging public utterances about succession in the ANC, he himself appears to have ambitions, and the Eastern Cape is critical for him.

“As ANC secretary-general, he occupies one of the party’s most strategically important positions and has become increasingly visible as its chief political communicator and defender of President Cyril Ramaphosa.

“In ANC politics, visibility, organisational control and alliance-building are often early indicators of leadership aspirations. Mbalula has repeatedly tried to suppress open succession campaigning before the ANC’s 2027 elective conference, but paradoxically, this also places him at the centre of the succession debate itself.

“However, he still faces obstacles, especially because ANC deputy presidents have historically been better placed to succeed to the presidency,” said Neethling.

Why is the Eastern Cape so important?

According to Neethling, the Eastern Cape remains critically important to the ANC because it is both a symbolic heartland of liberation and one of the party’s remaining electoral strongholds. The province is also expected to play a critical role in the ANC’s 2027 leadership race.

“As ANC support has weakened in provinces such as Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, the Eastern Cape has gained greater importance in internal ANC power struggles due to its large branch and delegate base.

“The ANC’s continuing strength in rural provinces also suggests that the party still benefits from liberation loyalties, patronage networks and weaker opposition penetration in rural areas. Urban voters, by contrast, tend to focus more strongly on governance failures, unemployment, crime and service delivery problems.”

Reasons for the PTT’s establishment

Mbalula told the media on Thursday that the PTT was necessary because the Provincial Executive Committee (PEC) of the Eastern Cape had completed its mandate. He also said it was a decision of the ANC’s National Executive Committee (NEC).

Who is on this PTT?

The new PTT, headed by Mabuyane as convenor, Mlungisi Mvoko as deputy convenor and Helen Sauls-August as coordinator, is believed to consolidate power firmly in Mabuyane’s camp. This team is expected to lead the Eastern Cape to an elective conference. It is still unclear when the Eastern Cape’s next conference will be held.