Angola, Nigeria and Algeria set to benefit as Europe warned of critical winter gas shortfall if Hormuz disruptions persist for 1–3 months

Europe could face a severe energy crunch before winter if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue for another one to three months, raising the prospect of Africa’s largest oil and gas producers becoming increasingly critical to European and Asian energy security.

• Prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could create a severe energy shortage in Europe before winter, according to Equinor executives.
• Europe's gas reserves are currently well below the seasonal norm, with critical low storage levels reported in major economies like the Netherlands, Germany, and France.
• Heightened Middle East tensions and reduced Russian LNG imports have intensified global competition for gas, potentially driving European prices much higher.
• The rise of new infrastructure like Angola's major oil discovery and Nigeria's Dangote Refinery is strengthening Africa's role in global energy markets amidst Europe's search for new supply routes.

The warning came from executives at Norwegian energy giant Equinor, who said prolonged shipping disruptions through the strategic waterway could leave Europe struggling to refill depleted natural gas reserves ahead of winter.

The concerns are intensifying as tensions in the Middle East continue to threaten one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints.

Iran has recently hardened its rhetoric around the Strait of Hormuz after announcing tighter oversight measures through its newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority, signalling greater control over maritime transit in the region.

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s busiest oil and LNG shipping routes, carrying nearly a fifth of global seaborne oil and large volumes of liquefied natural gas exports from Gulf producers including Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Europe’s gas reserves fall to critical levels

Europe entered the current summer refill season with heavily depleted gas reserves after a prolonged winter, according to an OilPrice report.

Equinor executives said European gas storage facilities were only 28% full at the end of winter and have since recovered to around 35–37%, still significantly below the seasonal norm of about 50%.

Storage levels in major economies fell sharply before spring. Dutch reserves plunged to 5.8%, the lowest level in a decade, while Germany’s storage levels fell to around 20% and France’s hovered near 27%.

The European Union typically targets storage levels between 80% and 90% before winter to avoid supply shocks during peak heating periods.

However, disruptions in LNG markets, combined with geopolitical instability in the Middle East and Europe’s gradual phase-out of Russian LNG, have intensified global competition for cargoes, especially against strong Asian demand.

Equinor warned that if the Strait of Hormuz disruption lasts one to three months, Europe could face a highly critical situation, potentially driving benchmark Dutch TTF gas prices toward €90 per megawatt-hour.

Higher prices are expected to trigger industrial fuel switching, reduced gas-to-power demand and stronger competition for African energy exports as Europe and Asia scramble for alternative supplies.

Africa positioned as alternative energy supplier

As Europe searches for alternatives to Middle Eastern and Russian energy supplies, African producers such as Nigeria, Angola and Algeria are becoming increasingly important to global energy markets.

All three countries remain among Africa’s largest oil and gas producers, supplying crude oil, LNG and refined petroleum products to Europe and Asia through major export and refining infrastructure.

Algeria strengthens grip on European energy market

Algeria has become one of Europe’s most important gas suppliers since the European Union moved to cut dependence on Russian energy following the war in Ukraine.

Countries including Italy, Spain and France have expanded energy partnerships with Algeria through pipeline gas imports and LNG purchases.

According to recent energy data, Algeria’s crude exports to Europe and the Americas rose sharply in April 2026.

Exports to Spain jumped 106% to 116,000 barrels per day from 56,000 barrels previously, while shipments to the United States climbed 40.6% to 102,000 barrels per day.

Algerian crude exports to Italy also increased significantly, rising from 7,000 barrels per day to 55,000 barrels per day during the same period.

France remained the largest importer of Algerian crude in April 2026, with shipments reaching 138,000 barrels per day compared to 43,000 barrels in the previous month, according to the platform.

Nigeria and Angola deepen global energy role

Nigeria, meanwhile, continues to strengthen its role in global LNG markets through the Nigeria LNG project, which exports up to 22 million metric tonnes annually, alongside growing refined fuel exports backed by the Dangote Refinery.

The refinery has exported aviation fuel, diesel and other refined petroleum products to buyers in Europe, including the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, according to shipping and trading reports.

European energy giants are also strengthening their presence in Angola as Europe seeks to secure alternative long-term crude supplies.

In February, Italy’s Eni and the United Kingdom’s BP announced a fresh 500 million-barrel offshore oil discovery in Angola, strengthening the country’s position as one of Africa’s most strategic long-term oil suppliers.

Angola already exports significant crude volumes to Asian buyers, particularly China and India, while its Atlantic shipping routes continue to attract growing European demand.

With Europe seeking to secure energy supplies ahead of winter and Asian countries competing for LNG and crude cargoes, Africa’s biggest oil and gas producers are becoming increasingly important to global energy markets as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue.