Nearly 310 million tourists traveled internationally in 2026 despite geopolitical pressures

International tourism remained resilient in early 2026 despite rising geopolitical and economic pressures.

According to UN Tourism, approximately 307 million tourists traveled internationally in the first quarter of 2026, representing a 2 percent increase year‑on‑year, although growth slowed toward the end of the quarter following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East.

While demand remained relatively strong in January and February, disruptions to air connectivity, rising oil prices, and higher transport costs began to weigh on travel patterns in March and are expected to reduce global growth by 1–2 percentage points below the initial forecast of 3–4 percent for 2026.

These dynamics are already contributing to shifts in demand, with travelers increasingly favoring shorter-haul and regional destinations amid higher costs and uncertainty.

Regional trends highlight growing divergence. Europe recorded over 130 million international arrivals in the first quarter of 2026, with continued solid growth of over 4 percent, supported in part by the redirection of tourism flows toward Southern Mediterranean and Northern European countries, as well as the ongoing recovery in Central and Eastern Europe.

Africa also expanded (+4%), with particularly strong momentum in North Africa, including double-digit growth in March, while Sub-Saharan Africa maintained steady gains.

Tanzania has gained by 5 percent, Kenya by 9 percent, Uganda (1%), Somalia (4%) and DR Congo (4%) while Rwanda is highest by 16 percent

In Asia and Pacific, arrivals grew by 3 percent, though performance was mixed: strong gains in North-East Asia and Oceania were offset by weaker outcomes in South Asia, partly linked to disruptions affecting regional air hubs, with the region as a whole still below pre-pandemic levels.

The Americas recorded modest growth (+2 percent), driven largely by strong expansion in Central America, while South America saw a slight contraction. In contrast, the Middle East experienced a sharp decline (-14%), reflecting the direct impact of the conflict, despite having previously exceeded pre-pandemic levels.

Complementary aviation data from OAG, which tracks passenger arrivals as a proxy for tourism flows, indicates that global passenger traffic increased by approximately 5 percent year‑on‑year in the first quarter of 2026, suggesting continued overall momentum but reinforcing the picture of uneven regional performance.

Growth was strongest in several African markets, particularly in West Africa, while the Middle East and surrounding regions experienced notable declines due to conflict-related disruptions.

This divergence is also reflected at the country level: destinations such as El Salvador (+43%), New Zealand (+45%), and Paraguay (+46%) recorded strong increases in arrivals, whereas countries directly affected by the conflict saw sharp contractions.

Available data with broad coverage for the most recent quarters (up to the fourth quarter of 2025) shows that trends in travel exports (tourism receipts) broadly mirror international arrivals, while revealing sharper regional divergences.

Europe and North America continue to attract the highest global tourism revenues, supported by strong pricing power and high-value demand.

In contrast, East Asia and Pacific and South Asia display more volatile and uneven recovery paths, with fluctuations across quarters reflecting incomplete post-pandemic recovery and sensitivity to air connectivity constraints.

Middle East and North Africa also show rising volatility toward the end of the period, after stronger earlier performance, consistent with emerging geopolitical pressures.

Regional Tourism Growth Trends

Individual regional data for passenger arrivals, which includes quarterly performance for a broad selection of low- and middle-income countries, confirms the increasing divergence in tourism flows.

In Eastern and Southern Africa, Burundi outperforms the average growth of the region in Q1 2026, growing 35 percent in aviation passenger arrivals year-on-year. Namibia and Rwanda follow, with year-on-year increases in aviation passenger arrivals of 22 percent and 16 percent, respectively.

On the other hand, Sudan is the only analyzed country decreasing in passenger arrivals year-on-year, with a 13 percent decline.

In Western and Central Africa, Chad, Cabo Verde, and Sierra Leone stand out, experiencing a growth of 25%, 24%, and 23% in aviation passenger arrivals, respectively in the first part of 2026.

Three of the analyzed countries in the region decrease in year-on-year aviation arrivals flows: these are São Tomé and Príncipe (decrease of 7 percent), Gabon (decrease of 15%), and the Republic of Congo (decrease of 15%).

Meanwhile, in East Asia and Pacific, Mongolia leads year-on-year growth in passenger arrivals in Q1 2026, which grew 20 percent. On the other end of the scale, the Solomon Islands is experiencing a substantial decrease in flows (negative 15 percent in aviation passenger arrivals in Q1 2026).

In Q1 2026 in Europe and Central Asia, North Macedonia’s 40 percent year-on-year growth in aviation arrivals and 6.9 percent growth in tourist arrivals positions the country as one of the best low- and middle-income economy performers in the region, followed by Moldova (21% growth in aviation arrivals) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (20 percent growth in aviation arrivals).

Montenegro, Azerbaijan, and Albania are the countries of analysis which experience decreases in aviation passenger arrivals of 17%, 5%, and 2%, respectively.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, the best performer in Q1 2026 (Haiti, growing 26% in year-on-year aviation passenger arrivals) is offsetting sharp declines in arrivals in the first quarters of the previous years. Meanwhile, Paraguay, Argentina, Brazil, and Peru, follow with substantial year-on-year increases in passenger arrivals of 24%, 22%, 16%, and 13%, respectively.

The countries which decrease the most in passenger arrivals for the same period are Cuba (negative 39%) and Jamaica (negative 25%).

Middle Eastern and North African low- and middle-income economies are persistently affected by ongoing conflict in the region.

Nevertheless, country-level data shows a clear divergence, with Northern African economies being resilient to shocks while Middle Eastern economies suffer sharp decreases in arrivals.

The analyzed country experiencing the highest year-on-year growth in aviation passenger arrivals in the first quarter of 2026 is Libya (16% growth), whereas the Islamic Republic of Iran decreases 43%.

In Q1 2026 in South Asia, Nepal experienced a year-on-year growth of 15% in passenger arrivals, and a 6.7% growth in international tourist arrivals.

Maldives just grew 0.2% in international tourist arrivals while decreasing 2% in aviation passenger arrivals.