Over 165,000 square kilometers of coral reefs can strongly withstand climate crisis. New study reveals

Scientists have identified 165,922 square kilometers of coral reefs across 71 countries and 100 territories with the strongest potential to survive the climate crisis.

This is according to a major new global study being presented at the Our Ocean Conference in Mombasa Kenya by the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) and Macquarie University, with support from the Bloomberg Ocean Initiative. 

The research marks the launch of a new global campaign, Our Reefs, Our Future, from civil society calling on governments to prioritize protection of these reefs from immediate, local threats. 

This analysis, developed as part of the 50 Reefs+ study, presents a significant advance in understanding which coral reefs retain the strongest potential to survive future warming.

The paper, Machine-learning and prioritization models reveal climate refugia for coral reefs into 2050, builds on the original 50 Reefs assessment published in 2018 – the first global effort to identify the coral reef systems most likely to withstand climate change and serve as priorities for conservation action.

Expanding significantly on its foundation, the new study identifies three times more climate-resilient reef areas across 30 additional countries and 54 additional territories and jurisdictions, revealing a far greater opportunity for coral reef persistence than previously understood. 

Dr. Emily Darling, Director of Coral Conservation at WCS and co-author of the study said: “This is a significant breakthrough in our understanding of coral reef resilience. Coral reefs are often framed as ecosystems beyond saving, but this research shows that there is a global set of reefs that have the potential to survive and recover from the climate crisis.

We now have a critical opportunity to mobilize the necessary action to protect these reefs in meaningful partnership with local stakeholders and national governments.”

 The analysis finds that more than half, or 61 percent of identified climate-resilient reefs are concentrated in five countries – Australia, the Bahamas, Cuba, Indonesia and the Philippines.

Crucially, Australia, the Bahamas and Indonesia governments have signed the High-Level Commitment on Climate-Resilient Coral Reefs and are working to protect climate-resilient reefs in their territories.

The research also identifies substantial new areas of climate-resilient reefs across the Caribbean, including in Belize, Panama and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These are the regions that earlier global 50 Reef assessments had not recognized. 

While earlier global assessments focused primarily on reefs that could avoid climate impacts through favorable environmental conditions, the new analysis reveals that coral reef resilience is more complex than previously understood.

Researchers identified three distinct pathways through which reefs can persist in a warming world. Some reefs act as avoidance refugia, located in rare ocean “cool spots” where local conditions help shield corals from extreme heat and provide refuge from warming trends.

Others function as resistance refugia, where corals have developed adaptations that enable them to withstand heat stress, bleaching and other climate impacts that would damage less resilient reef systems.

A third group are recovery refugia, reefs that can rebound rapidly after disturbances such as bleaching events, cyclones or storms, rebuilding coral cover and ecological function faster than surrounding reef systems.

Together, this avoidance, resistance and recovery framework provides the clearest picture yet of why some coral reefs retain greater potential to survive climate change than others and represents a major advance in understanding coral reef resilience.

Nearly one billion people depend on coral reefs for food security, livelihoods and coastal protection. Yet water pollution from sewage, agricultural runoff and sediment loss, destructive and unsustainable fishing practices, and poorly managed tourism and coastal development continue to accelerate reef decline worldwide.

Despite the growing scientific understanding of where climate-resilient reefs remain, major protection gaps persist.

Only around 28 percent of identified priority reefs currently fall within protected or conserved areas, leaving more than 119,000 kilometers square outside existing conservation frameworks.

Many existing marine protected areas also continue to face significant challenges around funding, enforcement and long-term management capacity.

SkyTruth has partnered with WCS to provide access to the study’s datasets through the 30×30 Progress Tracker, a free interactive platform that enables users to track global, regional, and national progress toward conserving 30 percent of the planet by 2030.

By displaying the data on the tool through high-resolution mapping, governments and stakeholders can clearly see where these reefs are and how they contribute to 30×30 goals. 

The model was trained on decades of real-world coral reef observations to identify reefs with the strongest potential to persist through future warming. The resulting map is 10,000 times more detailed than any map before it, providing a far more precise picture of coral reef resilience to guide local and national conservation actions. 

Antha Williams, who leads the Environment Program at Bloomberg Philanthropies, said: “When Bloomberg Philanthropies helped launch the 50 Reefs initiative, it was the first global assessment of its kind to identify coral reefs with the strongest chance of surviving climate change.”

“This new research shows that opportunity is even greater than previously understood, revealing three times more climate-resilient reefs and giving governments, scientists, Indigenous Peoples, and local communities a powerful new roadmap for protecting them – and the communities that depend on them – for generations to come,” added Antha Williams.

The findings are being launched alongside the Our Reefs, Our Future campaign at the 2026 Our Ocean Conference in Kenya, a global effort led by WCS, the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and The Nature Conservancy (TNC).

The campaign calls on governments to prioritize climate-resilient coral reefs within Marine Protected and Conserved Area (MPCA) networks and national 30×30 commitments, recognizing these reefs as critical infrastructure for people, economies and coastal resilience.

It also seeks to mobilize greater political ambition and investment to tackle immediate local threats – including pollution, destructive fishing, unsustainable coastal development and poorly managed tourism – so these reefs have the greatest possible chance of surviving climate change. 

Petra MacGowan, the Director of Coral Reef Partnerships at The Nature Conservancy shared, “We now know more than ever about which coral reefs are most likely to survive climate change – but identifying them is only the first step. Without urgent investment in management, sustainable financing, and partnerships with the communities who depend on these reefs, they will remain at risk. The science is there, the tools are working, and partners are ready to act. What we need now is speed and scale – to rapidly expand protection and secure the future of the world’s most climate‑resilient reefs.”

Between the reefs and the deep blue sea

Dr. Gabby Ahmadia, Vice President of Seascapes and Science at WWF US added, “For millions of people, coral reefs are not just an ecosystem; they are food, income, protection and identity. As governments move to protect climate-resilient reefs, Indigenous Peoples, local communities and reef-dependent populations must be at the centre of decisions and investment. Protecting coral reefs is ultimately about protecting people and nature together because the world above depends on the world below.” 

Dr. Stacy Jupiter, Executive Director of the Global Marine Program at WCS and study co-author, said: “For years, the world thought we were watching the final decline of coral reef ecosystems. Instead, we now know there are far more reefs with the potential to survive and recover from climate change than previously understood. 

“More than half of these climate-resilient reefs are concentrated in just five countries. That creates an extraordinary opportunity for governments to protect ecosystems that could help regenerate reefs globally, while safeguarding food security, coastlines, jobs and billions of dollars for their own economies.”

About the research

The study combines more than 45,000 field observations of coral reefs collected between 1960 and 2025 with 42 climate, oceanographic and human-pressure predictors to create the first high-resolution global assessment of coral reef climate refugia at a 250-metre scale.

The Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS)

The Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) is a global conservation organization working to protect the world’s wildlife and wild places through science, conservation action, education, and partnerships with governments, Indigenous Peoples, local communities, and the private sector.

The Nature Conservancy

The Nature Conservancy is a global conservation organization dedicated to conserving the lands and waters on which all life depends.

The Bloomberg Ocean Initiative 

 The Bloomberg Ocean Initiative is Bloomberg Philanthropies’ effort to protect the world’s ocean from climate change, overfishing, and pollution threats.

About SkyTruth 

SkyTruth is a technology nonprofit that harnesses satellite technology and artificial intelligence to expose environmental threats, accelerate climate action, and support biodiversity protection.

Our Reefs, Our Future Campaign 

The Our Reefs, Our Future campaign is a global initiative led by WCS, WWF and TNC to help accelerate protection of coral reefs with the greatest potential to survive climate change.

The World Wildlife Fund

WWF is one of the world’s leading conservation organizations, working for 60 years in nearly 100 countries to help people and nature thrive, with the support of nearly a million members in the United States and more than 5 million members worldwide.