Africa could earn over USD 1 trillion from offshore renewables

By Nick Hedley and Victoria Kalyvas

Africa has vast, untapped offshore wind and marine energy potential

At a time when energy security, decarbonization and affordability are high on the global agenda, Africa has an opportunity to harness its ocean-based renewable energy resources.

The continent’s vast coastline, spanning 30,500 kilometres, offers significant potential for offshore wind and other ocean-based renewable energy technologies, supported by strong offshore winds and ocean currents.

Yet, these power sources are still in the early stages of development.

Although Africa currently has no offshore wind farms, 2,910 megawatts (MW) of offshore wind projects have been announced or are in pre-construction across the continent, according to Global Energy Monitor.

The continent also has one marine energy project in the works – a floating ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) facility off the island nation of São Tomé and Príncipe.

The 1.5 MW plant may later be expanded to 10 MW, according to the project developer.

Globally, offshore wind generation has grown rapidly.

As of 2025, 92 gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind capacity had been installed worldwide, nearly triple the amount online just five years earlier, according to International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) data.

Other forms of ocean-based renewable energy are less mature, with 490 MW of capacity, mainly tidal, ocean current and wave energy, installed globally in 2025. Asia and Europe account for the vast majority of completed projects in both categories.

Unlocking even a fraction of Africa’s potential could help coastal nations expand and diversify their electricity mixes, reduce exposure to volatile fossil fuel markets, support long-term energy security, create local jobs, establish supply chains, and achieve economic diversification for coastal communities.

How can the ocean generate renewable electricity?

Energy from various characteristics of the ocean, the sun and offshore winds can be used to generate renewable power.

Offshore wind is the leading ocean-based energy technology globally. Wind turbines are installed in the sea, either fixed to the seabed or mounted on floating platforms.

As the wind rotates the turbine blades, generators convert this movement into electricity, which is transmitted to shore through subsea cables.

Floating solar PV is another option, with some countries deploying offshore floating solar facilities at scale.

There is also growing interest in marine energy, which harnesses energy from ocean currents, tides, waves, and differences in saltwater temperature and salinity. Marine energy technologies include:

Ocean current energy: Submerged turbines that extract kinetic energy from the flow of deep ocean currents.

Tidal energy: Systems that capture energy from the rise and fall of tides, or from tidal stream currents, using barrages, turbines, or lagoons.

Wave energy: Devices deployed at or near the ocean surface that convert the kinetic and potential energy of waves into electricity.

Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC): A technology that exploits the temperature difference between warm surface seawater and cold deep water to drive turbines that generate electricity.

Salinity gradient energy:

A technology that uses the difference in salt concentration where freshwater meets seawater to generate power.

The two main methods are pressure retarded osmosis, where freshwater passing into a saltwater chamber creates pressure that drives a turbine, and reverse electrodialysis, where salt ions are transported through a membrane, creating an electrical potential.

Africa’s ocean could more than meet the continent’s future electricity needs

African coastal nations are yet to tap their ocean energy resources, but investors and governments are increasingly interested.

Work is underway to quantify its potential: a 2026 study by researchers at the University of Southampton found that the continent could install 6,750 GW of fixed-bottom and floating offshore wind turbines, roughly 28 times Africa’s current installed power generation capacity.

If Africa tapped just 5 percent of this offshore wind potential, it could add 338 GW of generating capacity. These facilities would produce 1,332 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity per year, more than the continent’s total power output from all sources in 2025.

Theoretically, this would be sufficient to meet all new electricity demand between now and 2040, even in a scenario where economic growth accelerates, and universal access to electricity and clean cooking is achieved.[2]

In a scenario where offshore wind alone meets all electricity demand growth up to 2040, onshore and offshore wind combined would account for up to 59% of the continent’s power output in that year,[3] roughly the same share as the technology held in Denmark in 2025.

Southern African countries have the highest offshore wind potential, followed by North Africa

According to the 2026 study, South Africa leads the way with 1,632 GW in offshore wind potential, followed by Namibia (1,259 GW), Libya (585 GW), Somalia (447 GW), and Morocco (382 GW).

Island nations also have considerable potential, including Mauritius (333 GW) and Madagascar (234 GW). Some countries with offshore oil industries could also harness their ocean-based wind resources, including Senegal (61 GW of potential) and Angola (36 GW).

Southern coastal countries show the highest potential.

In South Africa’s case, offshore wind could theoretically deliver 6,434 TWh of power per year,[4] nearly 30 times the country’s total annual electricity demand, and over six times as much electricity as the whole continent currently generates. At least one project is already planned in the country – an 810 MW facility off the nation’s east coast.

Whilst East Africa’s resources are not as extensive as those of Southern Africa, it still has immense potential. Kenya, for example, could deploy 68 GW of floating offshore wind turbines, per the study.

A separate World Bank analysis found the country could also install up to 9 GW of seabed-fixed turbines. As of mid-2025, the country has just 3.8 GW of power-generating capacity across all technologies.

Morocco, meanwhile, plans to begin construction on its first 1 GW project by 2029.

In addition to offshore wind, a research paper by the African Development Bank found that Southern and East African states have good wave energy, OTEC, floating solar, and ocean current resources, whilst West Africa has good wave power potential. A study by researchers at Florida Atlantic University concluded that South Africa has particularly good ocean current resources.

For the time being, offshore wind is the only mature technology in this space, although interest in alternatives is growing.

Ocean-based renewables can create jobs, promote sustainable development and help shield Africa from fuel price shocks

As well as contributing clean power to national grids, marine energy projects are a major source of employment.

Each gigawatt of offshore wind capacity creates roughly 17,500 jobs, according to calculations based on European projects by the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC).

In 2025, the World Bank said that every USD 1 million invested in offshore wind yields 25 jobs, “five times more than fossil fuels.” Every gigawatt of installed offshore wind capacity generates USD 3.2 billion in gross value-added benefits.

This means that adding 338 GW of offshore wind, as outlined in the scenario above, would create 5.9 million jobs and extract over USD 1 trillion in economic benefits.

Maximising these benefits will depend on local workforce development, domestic supply chain participation, and equitable benefit-sharing frameworks.

The African Union estimates that Africa’s blue economy could generate USD 405 billion and 57 million jobs by 2030 across sustainable development, food production, renewable energy, marine transport, trade, tourism and climate resilience.

Increasing the share of homegrown electricity would shore up energy security by reducing the continent’s exposure to volatile global fossil fuel markets.

To achieve this, Africa will need to invest heavily in onshore and offshore wind, plus solar PV, hydro power, geothermal and battery storage. This would shield the continent from future energy shocks whilst advancing economic growth.

Shifting to offshore wind can help Africa avoid USD billions in fossil fuel-related damage

Offshore wind helps to avoid many of the environmental and social harms associated with the production, transport and use of oil and gas.

Accelerating the transition to clean energy is critical to addressing climate change, which is already disproportionately affecting Africa. Global sea levels are currently rising at an average rate of approximately 3.7 mm per year, but parts of East Africa – including the coasts of Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique – are experiencing faster increases of around 5 mm annually.

The direct impacts of fossil fuel extraction are being felt across the continent. For example, an estimated 705,100 barrels of oil were spilt in the Niger Delta between 1990 and 2022.

A 2025 survey of communities in the Delta region found 60 percent reported negative health effects and 75 percent reported impacts on local biodiversity.

Researchers estimated that the oil pollution destroyed 5,644 hectares of mangrove forest – an area 17 times the size of New York’s Central Park – every year from 2016 to 2024. In 2023, the total cost to repair the environment and to public health was estimated at least USD 12 billion over 12 years.

Whilst offshore wind projects can have environmental impacts that require careful management, their lifecycle climate and pollution impacts are substantially lower than those of fossil fuel extraction and use.

The impacts of offshore can be significantly reduced through responsible planning, siting, construction and operations.

Measures such as early stakeholder engagement, biodiversity-sensitive spatial planning, seasonal construction schedules, noise-mitigation technologies and long-term environmental monitoring can help protect marine ecosystems, fisheries and coastal communities.

Whilst data gaps remain, emerging research also suggests that offshore wind infrastructure may provide localised habitat benefits for some species.

Reducing fossil fuel use would also help avoid substantial climate-related economic damage globally. Climate impacts can be quantified by calculating the social cost of carbon, an estimation of the economic harm caused by each tonne of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere.

A recent study found that incorporating damage to oceans nearly doubles the cost of emissions.

Each tonne of CO2 caused approximately USD 48 in ocean-related damages in 2020, which will rise to USD 72 by 2030, driven by impacts on coral reefs, fisheries, mangroves, mariculture and seaports.

Adding 338 GW of generating capacity, as in the example above, would avoid around 690 million tonnes of CO2 emissions annually.

Using the projected 2030 social cost of carbon for ocean impacts alone, this would translate into approximately USD 50 billion in avoided damage to global oceans each year.

Expanding offshore wind capacity will therefore play an important role in mitigating the impacts of climate change, as well as supporting efforts to reach net zero by 2050.

Finance, clear policy and coordinated action are needed to unlock Africa’s offshore renewable energy potential

Although Africa’s offshore energy potential is substantial, current deployment realities remain far more constrained.

Africa receives less than 2 percent of global renewable energy investment, and large-scale offshore wind deployment would require major advances in financing and enabling policy frameworks, with significant investments in transmission infrastructure, ports, grid integration, storage and regional planning.

A 2025 World Bank report uses lessons learned from countries with established offshore wind markets to define four pillars of success:

Strategy: a clear, long-term offshore wind strategy to guide decisions

Policy: including clear targets and timelines to increase investor confidence, and policy that ensures wins and balances trade-offs by, for example, ensuring local economic benefits, and environmental and social sustainability.

Frameworks: including marine spatial planning and permitting, power export systems and grid connection.

Delivery: developing supply chains, ports, transmission grids, and financing are highlighted as key, along with skills development programmes and community engagement.

Realising Africa’s offshore renewable energy potential will require coordinated action from stakeholders in government, development finance institutions, industry and regional partners.

GWEC observes that a coordinated effort between governments, industry and investors was key to balancing risks and benefits in areas where offshore wind has been successfully developed.

Community participation is also increasingly important, according to the World Bank-administered Energy Sector Management Assistance Program: “This social license, although intangible, is an important asset, rooted in community trust and acceptance of a company and its activities.”

IRENA emphasises that integrated energy planning at the national and regional levels is essential for scaling renewable technologies in Africa.

The agency cites the Africa Clean Energy Corridor (ACEC) – a regional initiative to accelerate renewable energy development and cross-border trade in renewable power – as a reference for what regional coordination can look like in practice.

While much work needs to be done to create an enabling environment for Africa’s offshore energy sector, it could bring substantial benefits for domestic economies, local communities and the environment.