Political defections surge under Tinubu, raising one-party concerns in Nigeria

Right from the early time of self-government, political opposition has elevated the spirit of democracy, as concentration of power on a single political party poses a critical threat to the state’s mandate, accountability, and checks and balances.

Before President Bola Tinubu assumed power in 2023, Nigeria was projected as a country practicing a multi–party system, significantly dominated by two major political parties — the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).

The 2023 general elections brought up political competition in Nigeria, with the renaissance of the Labour Party (LP), after Peter Obi ran as its presidential candidate. renaissance

Notably, the significant prominence of New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), when Rabiu Kwankwaso joined the party and contested in the last presidential election, enjoying a strong base in Kano State. Rabiu Kwankwaso

While the competition is expected to heat up as time passes, the recent events playing out in the country point to the direct opposite. As defection heats up, political competition suffers continuous decline under the era of President Tinubu.

Nigeria political map under Tinubu

Before the 2023 general elections, APC occupied 21 governorship seats in Nigeria, PDP governed 14 states, while All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) ruled in Anambra State.

Meanwhile, APC won 15 governorship polls in the last elections, PDP emerged victorious in six states, and NNPP gripped power in Kano State. last elections

In the Senate chambers, while eight out of the 109 senatorial seats were declared vacant due to death and supplementary elections — APC won 59 seats, PDP (36), LP (8), SDP (2), NNPP (2), APGA (1), and YPP (1). In the lower chamber, APC swept 175 out of 360 seats, PDP (118), LP (35), NNPP (19), APGA (5), SDP (2), ADC (2), and YPP (1)senatorial seats

Recall that the APC presidential candidate, former President Muhammadu Buhari, reigned twice between 2015 and 2023 before Tinubu succeeded him.

As of December 2025, the above figures have surged magically in favor of the ruling party. With the help of mass detection, Tinubu’s APC dominated Nigeria’s political demographic. As of that time, APC occupied 26 governorship seats, 73 senatorial seats, 226 seats in the Green Chamber, and 598 seats in the state’s Houses of Assembly. occupied

The figure continues to rise as the country navigates towards the 2027 general election. APC currently holds 31 out of the 35 governorship positions. The ruling party also commands approximately 75 out of the 109 senatorial seats in the National Assembly, commanding the major power in the upper chamber. While Godswill Akpabio is the Senate President, Barau Jibrin supports him as the Deputy Senate President, Opeyemi Bamidele leads the house as the Senate Leader, and Lola Ashiru sits as the Deputy Senate Leader. commands approximately

In the lower chamber, APC sweeps a two-thirds majority in the 360-member House of Representatives, occupying about 242 seats. Also, Abbas Tajudeen from APC rules as the Speaker of the House, Benjamin Kalu deputizes him, Julius Ihonvbere serves as the Majority Leader, and Bello Kumo holds power as the Chief Whip.

During an interview with AM News, Qosim Suleiman, a political analyst with African Liberty, identifies a mix of factors driving political defection in Nigeria to the ruling APC. He notes that political loyalty rests on winning elections. Therefore, politicians move with a party that could secure them the necessary votes to win an election. 

With the internal crises crippling the stability of other political parties, the investigative journalist with Premium Times Nigeria recognizes the death of opposition as another factor proving advantageous to Tinubu’s APC.

He further emphasizes that while some defectors believe APC has established the much-needed machinery to help them win elections, others are attracted by the structural control the ruling party enjoys over others. 

Another reason is incentives drawing governors and lawmakers to the APC. “Although that incentive is obscure. But there’s definitely an incentive and it’s quite compelling.”

“When you look at politicians and states that are traditionally not from APC, they have defected into APC,” Mr. Qosim said. “We have more than 30 governors who are currently members of APC. And the number of defections that we saw in the last one year is really surprising.”

Implications of the Above Data

As representatives of a political party with a similar ideology dominate decision-making, harsh policies are easily implemented with little or without reprisal.

Top among those harsh policies is the national electricity metering rate, rising above 56%, with consumers placed under ‘Band A’ being the major victims. While the government pushes for cost-reflective tariffs to eliminate subsidies, households and businesses continue to suffer high bills that do not match the actual power supplied. Customers classified under Band A are promised to enjoy a minimum of 20 hours of daily power supply. However, despite the significantly higher costs, customers often receive only 10 hours of power supply. The persistent outages have forced both households and businesses to rely heavily on expensive petrol and diesel generators, creating a double financial burden. electricity meteringcustomers

Another similar critical policy is the telecommunications tariff. Since 2025, Nigerians have been navigating a new reality after the sudden surge in mobile data subscriptions, casting a shadow on the lives of researchers, students, workers, and even business sectors. mobile data subscriptions

Telecom operators claimed they paid N2.4 trillion in taxes and levies to governments in 2023, bemoaning rising operational costs due to factors such as the devaluation of naira and increased energy expenses. claimed

Initially, they sought a 100% tariff hike but the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) capped the increment at 50%, representing a substantial burden for many Nigerians, particularly those on lower incomes. Despite the increment in this commodity, Nigerians have solicited for a reduction in the durability of mobile data, unlike before, when it was cheaper and more affordable. capped

As APC dominates major power across the country, Mr. Qosim is more concerned with the implications of this for dissenting voices. While the President has the highest authority in decision-making, his policies are easily passed, whether they bring hardship or relief.

“When we are talking about the econom[ic] policy at the National Economy Council (NEC), coordinated by the Vice President, the Governor of the Central Bank, and all the country’s governors forming the members. Even if they have to vote in this council before passing a decision, APC still has a say in getting things done.”

While uniformity could be helpful in facilitating policies and securing timely approval, Mr. Qosim continues, it poses a great danger when this set of leaders is in possession of power to pass policies that are detrimental and less beneficial to the citizens and the public at large. “There would be little to no opposition at all when they’re trying to do this.”

Some Trends of Defection

In the height of the recent defection are three Southern governors, Peter Mbah of Enugu State, Senator Douye Diri of Bayelsa State, and Sheriff Obovrevwori of Delta State — the trio dumping the rival PDP for the ruling APC.

Governor Mbah announced his move in October 2025, emphasizing his desire to serve the people of Enugu better, a decision he described as typically aligning with APC’s “vision for development and progress.” He described his defection as a necessary step toward realizing his administration’s goals.

The governor boasted that joining the platform of APC would enable stronger collaboration and open new opportunities for growth in the state.

Governor Diri officially formalized his move to APC in the first week of November, following weeks of intense speculation.

The governor organized a large–scale event to celebrate the defection, drawing political figures in the region, including a pool of supporters and loyalists from APC. Diri justified his move to APC as one that was motivated in the best interest of the state.

Bayelsa’s Diri became the fourth PDP governor to switch allegiance this year, following the footsteps of other governors like Sheriff Obovrevwori (Delta), Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom), and Peter Mbah (Enugu). 

Adding to the list is the governor of Rivers State, Siminalayi Fubara, who joined APC on December 14. He disclosed the primary goal behind his defection as a means of expressing appreciation to President Tinubu. Siminalayi Fubara

Another wave of defections by lawmakers, party executives, and political personnel across Rivers, Sokoto, Zamfara, and the FCT, has strengthened APC’s consolidated power, as opposition parties battle internal turmoil — raising questions as to what oppositional capacity could become ahead of the next gubernatorial election scheduled for 2027. defections

Speaking during the 14th APC national caucus meeting in Abuja, the Senate President of Nigeria, Godswill Akpabio, boasted how the opposition ranks in the upper chamber rapidly shrank from 50 to five.

Some of the remaining minority lawmakers privately expressed their readiness to defect to the ruling party, Senator Akpabio continued, admitting to the near presence of a one–party system in the senate.

As defection heats up, political competition suffers continuous decline under the era of President Tinubu.

Financial Inducement Links to Massive Defection to APC

The Presidency of Tinubu has been linked to mouthwatering packages given out to opposition politicians who dumped their parties. Allegedly, the financial inducements have intensified the wave of cross-carpeting APC is enjoying. linked

While each governor’s defection to APC received a jaw-dropping sum of N250billion, senators were gifted N1billion, and members from the House of Representatives cashed out N500million per head 

According to a report published by Sahara Reporters, the scheme is directly coordinated by individuals from the Presidency and supervised by senior officials under Tinubu’s government. report

The package is said to be released for beneficiaries in a proportional rate: an upfront payment once commitment is shown, and the remaining balance upon formal defection is validated.

For his part, Mr. Qosim mentions that one of the major reasons that gives Tinubu’s government an opportunity to woo defectors, especially governors, is because of the mouth-watering revenue each state is receiving.

“Tinubu increased revenue and you won’t imagine the kind of money that governors are receiving right now. That’s why you don’t see governors complaining that they don’t have money to pay salaries. 

“They have a lot of money. So, it’s kind of easy to buy them off. By way of federal allocations, Tinubu has pumped a lot of money into governors’ hands.”

The post Political defections surge under Tinubu, raising one-party concerns in Nigeria appeared first on New York Amsterdam News.