That Saharan dust again!

The last few weeks the gloomy skies as a result of a massive Saharan dust cloud that has blanketed the Caribbean, is of great concern for Grenada and other islands. Some doctors have warned of potential health issues especially for people prone to allergic reactions to dust. While the dust is generally high in the atmosphere, it can still cause health issues for those with respiratory conditions. So, individuals with respiratory issues or allergies may want to stay indoors or wear masks when outdoors.

While this isn’t the first nor will it be the last time that we are seeing the spectacle, some people are still asking – what is Saharan dust? With a little research we have found that the dust is part of a phenomenon known as the Saharan Air Layer – a very dry, dusty mass of air that forms over the Sahara Desert which is the world’s largest hot desert. It is located in North Africa encompassing parts of eleven countries with Algeria having more than 90 per cent of it forming part of the vast Sahara. The dust clouds move over the Atlantic Ocean and can reach as far west as Texas. That’s when it covers the Caribbean islands on its way across the Atlantic toward the United States.

All may not be lost because there is the belief that the Saharan dust can sometimes inhibit tropical storm development or even suppress hurricanes because of the warmth, dryness and strong winds (25-55 mph) associated with it. It is also believed that it can suppress clouds and thunderstorms as the air in a Saharan Air Layer is about 50% less moist than a typical tropical atmosphere, causing weaker cyclones. And again there is the belief that the dust helps some plants to grow.

As the Caribbean is urged to prepare for hotter and drier conditions, this week we share in part a press release issued by the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) which explains what’s to come.

Governments, businesses, farmers, and households are urged to prepare for potentially severe climate extremes as a developing El Niño is expected to bring hotter and drier conditions across the region in 2026 and 2027.

Dr Cedric Van Meerbeeck, Climatologist at CIMH, warns that this El Niño event is likely to bring periods of reduced rainfall and increased humid heat, which can affect water availability and agriculture. Without adequate planning, the socio-economic impacts from cascading and compounding hazards will be significant.

Historically, El Niño is linked to severe droughts—such as those in 2009–2010 and 2014– 2016—and also increases the risk of extreme heat, wildfires, and marine heatwaves that can trigger coral bleaching. Similar combined impacts were also observed during the record heat years of 2010, 2023, and 2024. Areas already experiencing drought, particularly in the Eastern Caribbean, may see slower recovery of water resources during the upcoming wet season, which could begin as early as May 2026.

Although El Niño is typically associated with quieter Atlantic hurricane seasons, Dr Van Meerbeeck stresses that risk remains, as a single hurricane or intense rainfall event can cause significant damage, as demonstrated by Hurricane Andrew in The Bahamas (1992) and Tropical Storm Erika in Dominica (2015).

According to Professor Michael Taylor -Co-Director of UWI CSGM, forecasts are showing the emergence of a potential multi-hazard regime—where heat, drought, and marine impacts can occur together and reinforce each other. Research has long pointed to these compound extremes as a serious threat to life and livelihoods in the Caribbean. With advance warning of a looming multi-hazard threat, preparedness is imperative—requiring coordinated and integrated action across and within sectors and a strong regional approach.

This emerging pattern reflects a shift toward more complex, interconnected climate risks, affecting key sectors such as agriculture, water resources management, energy, and health. Reduced rainfall combined with elevated temperatures can lead to agricultural losses, affecting food security and rural livelihoods. Health risks may also increase, particularly in relation to water quality, vector-borne diseases, and heat-related illnesses.

Water and energy systems may come under strain, as demand for cooling increases, especially in countries that rely on hydroelectric power or freshwater-cooled energy production. Wider economic impacts linked to El Niño may also be felt, particularly in tourism, fisheries, and maritime transport. Given the region’s reliance on imports, global disruptions associated with the El Niño can affect trade, logistics, and the procurement of goods and services. Governments are being urged to assess risks to supply chains, transportation networks, and key trade routes.

For example, recent drought events have disrupted operations at the Panama Canal, a major transit point for goods entering the region and ports along the east coast of the USA. These disruptions can negatively affect regional food security and increase the cost of living.

As El Niño forecasts typically become more reliable from May onward, Dr Van Meerbeeck is urging stakeholders to stay updated on the evolving El Niño and its potential implications, noting that regional experts will continue monitoring conditions and providing timely updates.

He also encourages decision-makers and the public to follow updates from the next Caribbean

Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) organized by the CIMH, scheduled for the week of May 24. At the Forum regional climate experts and personnel from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will engage with national, regional, and international stakeholders from climate-sensitive sectors to provide guidance ahead of the upcoming wet and hurricane season. Stakeholders are also encouraged to follow updates from their National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for country-specific information.

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