Tripling Intra-African Trade: CAADP’s Bold Vision for Africa’s Agrifood Economy

Africa’s food economy is entering a new phase. For decades, the continent’s agricultural challenge has largely been framed around increasing production. The new Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) Strategy and Action Plan 2026–2035 takes a broader approach, linking farming to processing, trade, finance, nutrition and resilience.

At the centre of the strategy is an ambitious target: triple intra-African trade in agrifood products and inputs by 2035. The African Union has also set targets to increase agrifood output by 45 per cent, halve post-harvest losses and raise locally processed food to 35 per cent of agrifood GDP. The framework contains 22 targets designed to make progress more measurable.

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The scale of the ambition reflects the size of the opportunity. Africa has historically relied heavily on food imports, with the continent’s food import bill previously estimated at around $50 billion annually. At the same time, significant quantities of locally produced food are lost before reaching consumers because of inadequate storage, transportation, processing and market infrastructure. FAO data show that sub-Saharan Africa recorded a food-loss rate of 23 per cent in 2023, the highest regional rate in the world.

This is where CAADP’s shift from an agriculture-focused model towards agrifood systems transformation becomes significant. The strategy recognises that producing more food is only part of the equation. Farmers also need reliable markets, processors need raw materials, exporters need efficient logistics, and consumers need access to affordable and nutritious food.

The financial challenge remains substantial. CAADP aims to mobilise $100 billion in public and private investment over the strategy period, while calling on African countries to allocate at least 10 per cent of annual public expenditure to agrifood systems. The objective is to move agricultural financing beyond short-term interventions towards investment in infrastructure, technology, processing and commercially viable value chains.

Post-harvest management offers one of the clearest opportunities. Africa can increase the food available to its population not only by producing more, but by keeping more of what it already produces. FAO research has identified losses of up to 50 per cent for fruits and vegetables in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, while inadequate cold chains, storage and transport continue to affect farmers’ access to markets.

The continent’s fruit economy illustrates the potential. Africa Fruit Connect 2026, scheduled for 6–8 October in Nairobi, will bring together growers, processors, exporters, investors, policymakers and logistics providers around the commercial opportunities in the fruit value chain. Its focus on processing, market access, standards, cold chains and investment mirrors the wider CAADP objective of turning agricultural production into stronger regional and international trade.

The timing is important. The African Continental Free Trade Area provides a framework for expanding markets across borders, but trade agreements alone cannot move perishable produce from one African market to another. Roads, railways, ports, warehouses, cold-storage facilities, certification systems and reliable digital trade infrastructure must develop alongside them.

Climate resilience is another critical component. Agriculture remains particularly exposed to droughts, floods, extreme temperatures and other shocks. FAO’s latest global assessment estimates that disasters caused $3.26 trillion in agricultural losses worldwide between 1991 and 2023, with Africa accounting for about $611 billion of those losses and experiencing the highest proportional impact relative to agricultural GDP.

CAADP therefore places resilience alongside production and trade. Investment in irrigation, improved seeds, soil health, climate information, insurance, storage and processing can help reduce the vulnerability of farmers and food businesses while making agricultural value chains more investable.

The strategy’s ultimate test, however, will be implementation. Its targets are clear: higher production, lower losses, more processing, greater intra-African trade and stronger investment. The African Union is also developing a results framework and indicators to track progress and strengthen mutual accountability among member states.

Africa’s agricultural opportunity is therefore becoming a much bigger economic proposition. The goal is no longer simply to grow more food. It is to build competitive value chains around what the continent produces, connect farmers to consumers across borders, process more products locally and retain a greater share of the value generated.

If the CAADP targets translate into sustained investment and implementation, Africa could move closer to an agrifood economy in which its farms are not merely sources of raw commodities, but foundations for manufacturing, trade, employment and regional prosperity.