Africa faces defining climate moment as super El Niño risks rise in 2026

As droughts, floods and extreme weather events intensify across the continent while geopolitical shifts reshape the global energy and development landscape, the African Climate Foundation says the continent is entering a defining period that will determine not only its climate future, but its broader development trajectory.

The African Climate Foundation (ACF) believes Africa faces an increasingly urgent question: will the continent’s climate transition be shaped from within, or imposed from without?

The foundation’s 2026-2030 strategy has been released as scientists warn of a ‘super El Niño’ that will bring high probabilities of severe droughts, heatwaves and food crises.

It reflects what the ACF describes as a pivotal moment for the continent’s climate future and how the organization is evolving to ensure transition pathways are shaped by Africa’s own priorities and realities. 

“The decisions being made today around energy, finance, industrialization, trade and resilience will impact development outcomes for decades.”

“Our role is to ensure that those driving this transition from within Africa have the institutions, capabilities and investment platforms they need,” says Saliem Fakir, Executive Director and founder of African Climate Foundation.

Building the ecosystem to ensure investment supports transformation

According to the ACF, the new strategy builds on lessons learned over six years of work across the continent and recognition that climate action and development are inextricably linked.

The foundation says the challenge for African countries is no longer about securing commitments, but building the systems, institutions and partnerships needed to translate ambition into meaningful progress.

“Commitments have multiplied, but implementation has lagged. Each year of delay raises the costs, and the consequences of inaction will be borne most heavily by those least responsible for the crisis.”

 This is particularly concerning when considering the possibility of a ‘super El Niño’ later this year and the major impact it will have on the continent,” says Fakir.

Despite contributing only, a small share of global emissions, Africa continues to face disproportionate climate impacts while receiving only around 3 percent of global climate finance. 

The ACF argues that for African countries, climate action is increasingly about resilience to economic and climate shocks, food and energy security, and long-term competitiveness.

It says the challenge is not simply to mobilize more finance, but to ensure investment strengthens resilience, builds capability, and supports transformation.

Adapting to Africa’s evolving climate priorities

Professor Carlos Lopes, Chairman of the African Climate Foundation, says Africa’s role in global climate conversations has changed.

“Africa brings important perspectives, priorities and capabilities to global climate discussions. It’s no longer about importing what others are saying on climate, but how African voices help shape the agenda and define a transition that reflects the continent’s own realities and ambitions,” says Lopes.

The ACF’s new strategy reflects this change.

It places greater emphasis on country-led implementation platforms,

climate-resilient economic development, green industrialization, adaptation, and institutional capacity-building to help African countries navigate increasingly complex climate and economic pressures.

Systems that enable lasting progress

The ACF says that climate and development challenges cannot be addressed through isolated projects or short-term interventions, but require stronger collaboration between governments, institutions, communities, funders and regional partners.

“Our work is focused on strengthening the conditions that make long-term progress possible. Our commitment is to support and reinforce the momentum that African actors are already generating, not to lead or substitute for it,” says Fakir.

Through grant-making, fiscal hosting and incubation, the ACF supports institutions and ecosystems designed to strengthen local capacity, deepen regional engagement, and create the conditions for sustained progress across the continent.

The organization describes its role as catalytic, helping align philanthropy, governments, civil society, and investment partners around shared climate and development priorities.

It argues that Africa’s transition must also be equitable and inclusive, recognizing that climate outcomes are closely linked to health, gender, youth, justice and economic opportunity.

“The opportunity ahead is not only to respond to climate pressures, but to build stronger economies and create systems that support long-term resilience and growth. Realizing that opportunity will depend on whether African countries, institutions and communities have the capabilities and support needed to lead and shape their own future,” says Fakir.

The African Climate Foundation (ACF) is the first African-led regional climate foundation, working at the nexus of climate and development to support long-term, inclusive and climate-resilient growth across the continent.