AU, UN warn of deepening Somalia crisis after election talks collapse

MOGADISHU (Somaliguardian) – The African Union and the United Nations on Saturday expressed deep concern after high-stakes election negotiations between Somalia’s federal government and opposition leaders collapsed in Mogadishu, plunging the Horn of Africa nation into a widening constitutional crisis after President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud insisted his mandate continues until 2027 despite opposition claims that his term expired Friday.

The failure of the three-day negotiations, mediated by diplomats from the United States and the United Kingdom, marked the most serious political breakdown Somalia has faced in years and intensified fears that the country could slide into prolonged instability amid disputes over elections, constitutional legitimacy and foreign involvement.

The talks, held from May 13 to May 15 inside the heavily fortified Halane compound in Mogadishu, were aimed at resolving growing tensions between the federal government and the opposition Somali Future Council over how Somalia should organize elections and whether controversial constitutional amendments approved by parliament legally extended the president’s mandate from four years to five.

Instead, negotiations ended Friday night without agreement.

“The African Union Commission closely followed the high-level negotiations between the Federal Government of Somalia and the representatives of the Somali Future Council, convened in Mogadishu from 13 to 15 May 2026, and expresses concern that these negotiations concluded without a consensus,” the African Union said in a statement.

“The Commission commends the willingness of both the Federal Government, led by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, and the opposition leadership, to engage in direct and inclusive dialogue in the higher interest of Somalia and the Somali people.”

The African Union warned against hardening political positions and urged Somali leaders to urgently resume negotiations before the crisis deteriorates further.

The African Union “cautions against the entrenchment of divergent positions and calls upon all political stakeholders to promptly recommit to an inclusive and substantive political dialogue through genuine negotiation, mutual compromise, and strict adherence to constitutional order.”

The continental bloc also encouraged continued diplomatic engagement by international partners to help bridge Somalia’s political divisions.

“The AU in a statement expresses disappointment at collapse of intra-Somali talks,” said Rashid Abdi, a Nairobi-based analyst specializing in Horn of Africa affairs.

“Warns of ‘entrenched’ positions, appeals for continued dialogue. I think a balanced statement that shows the AU is careful not to endorse HSM’s unilateral one-year extension,” he added.

The United Nations Transitional Assistance Mission in Somalia also voiced concern over the collapse of the negotiations, saying Somalia had entered a sensitive political transition that required broader consensus and restraint.

“Following the talks held from 13-15 May, @UNTMIS_commends the parties for their resumption of dialogue and appreciates the efforts of the international partners who supported these discussions,” the UN mission said.

“It is regrettable, however, that once again the dialogue concluded without resolving key disputes. The UN Mission notes the parties’ stated commitment to continuing dialogue and to identifying a constructive way forward.”

The United Nations said it hoped Somali leaders would now intensify consultations aimed at reaching agreement on an electoral model that could unify the country rather than deepen political fragmentation.

The organization said Somalia’s leaders should focus on building “broad-based consensus around an electoral model that is practical and unifying.”

“The UN Mission further urges Somalis to come together to address the country’s severe humanitarian crisis and the persistent threat posed by terrorism. @UNTMIS_calls for restraint and reiterates its readiness to work with other international partners in support of efforts to overcome divisions among Somalia’s political leaders,” the statement added.

Somalia election talks collapse after three days of negotiations

The negotiations began Wednesday at Halane, the secure diplomatic and military camp near Mogadishu’s international airport that hosts foreign embassies, UN offices and African Union facilities.

Diplomats from the United States and the United Kingdom spent three days attempting to mediate between the federal government and opposition leaders amid mounting concern that Somalia was heading toward constitutional confrontation.

The talks focused on several major disputes, including the country’s electoral framework, constitutional amendments approved by parliament and the future of Somalia’s political transition.

According to opposition figures, the negotiations quickly stalled because President Mohamud refused to compromise on core issues.

The opposition strongly opposes the president’s push for one-person, one-vote elections, arguing that Somalia’s security conditions make such a vote impossible in the near future and accusing the government of using the proposal as a mechanism to prolong its rule.

Somalia has not held a nationwide direct election in decades because of insecurity, political fragmentation and the ongoing insurgency by the militant group Al-Shabaab.

Opposition leaders also rejected the constitutional amendments approved by parliament, arguing that they were unilateral and lacked broad national consensus.

Saeed Abdullahi Deni, who represented the opposition Somali Future Council during the negotiations, accused President Mohamud of entering the talks without any intention of reaching agreement.

Deni said the president wanted the negotiations to collapse from the first day but that former Somali President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed continued pushing for dialogue in hopes that compromise remained possible.

According to Deni, international mediators eventually lost confidence that the president was prepared to soften his position.

The collapse of the negotiations immediately deepened political uncertainty in Mogadishu, where tensions have steadily intensified in recent months over constitutional changes, election planning and allegations of authoritarianism.

Opposition declares Hassan Sheikh no longer president

The political crisis escalated dramatically Friday after opposition leaders declared that President Mohamud’s constitutional mandate had officially expired.

The opposition announced that Mohamud was no longer the legitimate president of Somalia and described him instead as “an ordinary citizen” whose orders and authority they no longer recognized.

But the president rejected the claims.

Speaking Friday night, Mohamud insisted his term legally continues until May 15, 2027, arguing that constitutional amendments approved by parliament extended the presidential term from four years to five.

He said the extension was lawful and irreversible despite objections from the opposition.

The rival interpretations of constitutional authority have now created a dangerous legitimacy dispute at the heart of Somalia’s federal government.

The same day the talks collapsed, opposition groups canceled planned anti-government protests that had been scheduled for Saturday in Mogadishu.

Opposition leaders said they suspended the demonstrations to allow negotiations more time to succeed.

But hopes for renewed talks faded Saturday after Puntland leader Deni departed Mogadishu, signaling that immediate resumption of negotiations appeared unlikely.

Analysts warned that the deadlock could further destabilize Somalia at a time when the country is already struggling with insecurity, economic hardship, clan tensions and a humanitarian crisis driven by conflict and climate shocks.

Turkey accused of backing Hassan Sheikh amid constitutional crisis

The political dispute took on a growing international dimension Saturday after Turkey appeared to publicly reaffirm support for President Mohamud despite the opposition’s declaration that his mandate had expired.

Alper Aktas visited President Mohamud at the presidential palace in Mogadishu one day after the disputed expiration of his term.

In a statement posted on X, the ambassador reaffirmed Ankara’s support for Somalia’s leadership and sovereignty.

“We were honored to be received by the President of the Federal Republic of Somalia, H.E. Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. During the meeting, we reaffirmed our steadfast support for Somalia’s unity and territorial integrity, sovereignty, security, and prosperity. We extend our sincere appreciation to President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud for his kind reception and warm hospitality,” ambassador Aktas said.

The visit immediately triggered sharp criticism from opposition figures, who accused Turkey of aligning itself with a leader whose constitutional mandate they say has ended.

Opposition politician Abdirahman Abdishakur condemned the move as politically dangerous during a fragile transition.

“The Turkish government’s decision to publicly reaffirm support for @HassanSMohamud immediately after the expiration of his constitutional mandate, at a moment when Somalia faces a contested political transition and no agreed electoral framework, sends a deeply troubling political signal,” Abdishakur said.

“Somalis have long valued the historic relationship with Türkiye, built on solidarity and mutual respect. That relationship must remain anchored in support for the Somali people, constitutional governance, and inclusive political consensus, not personalized alignment with a single political figure during a fragile and contested transition,” he added.

Abdishakur warned that Somalia’s stability could not be preserved through foreign support for disputed authority.

“Somalia’s stability cannot be sustained through external endorsement of expired mandates or concentration of power. Durable peace and stability require legitimacy, broad political agreement, accountable institutions, and public trust.”

The ambassador’s visit sparked a broad backlash across Somali social media.

Somali lawmaker Abdullahi Farah Mire said Turkey risked appearing aligned with a politically divisive administration.

“Turkey’s latest statement risks signalling the wrong message at a critical moment to an authority of contested legitimacy. Türkiye’s support should promote unity and inclusive governance; not be seen as backing a divisive, unlawful administration,” Mire said.

Hodan Ali said Ankara should protect its long-term interests in Somalia rather than tie itself too closely to Mohamud.

“Türkiye must strategically look onward beyond @HassanSMohamud to safeguard its investment in Somalia. It’s clear he is unlikely to remain in power. The ground swell against his failed leadership is clear,” she said.

Analyst Rashid Abdi also warned that Ankara could face political risks by visibly aligning itself with Mohamud during the constitutional dispute.

“Turkish Ambassador to Somalia Alper Aktas meets Hassan Sheikh Mohamud at Villa Somalia today in what appears to be a clear signal of where Ankara stands in the ongoing dispute over HSM’s controversial one-year term extension,” Abdi said.

“By aligning itself so closely with a tarnished leader Turkey is taking a big risk, but hey, maybe there is something we don’t know…”

Somalia’s ports minister, Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur, defended Turkey amid the criticism.

“The Somalia–Türkiye partnership is strategic, historic, and irreversible; forged through shared sacrifice, strengthened through mutual trust, and destined to endure for generations to come,” he said.

Turkish military presence in Mogadishu fuels tensions

Turkey’s expanding role in Somalia’s security sector has become increasingly controversial during the current political crisis.

On May 10, Turkish F-16 fighter jets flew over Mogadishu in a dramatic show of force hours before opposition protests were expected to begin.

The demonstrations had been planned against a government demolition campaign that opposition groups said displaced nearly half a million residents from parts of Mogadishu.

Opposition leaders were later confined to their homes by Somali security forces, many of them Turkish-trained units equipped with armored personnel carriers donated by Ankara.

Major roads across Mogadishu were sealed off, some using tanks supplied by Turkey.

Later that day, Turkish drones were also seen flying over the city.

Opposition figures and analysts interpreted the military activity as an attempt to intimidate government critics and demonstrate Ankara’s support for Mohamud’s administration.

“Turkey now embroiled in Somalia contest. At dawn on Sunday, Turkish F-16 jets scrambled, break sound barrier over Mogadishu on day 1 of national protest against state-led land grabs and dictatorship,” Rashid Abdi said.

“Turkish supplied M48 Patton battle tanks deployed at major street intersections. Thousands of Turkish-trained forces mobilised. Ankara’s robust show of military might is designed to intimidate the Somali opposition and demonstrate strong support for beleaguered HSM government,” he added.

Somali political commentator Adam Abdulle also commented on the deployment.

“Turkish F-16s engaged in full afterburners this morning in Mogadishu while Turkish drones flew overhead as the city prepared for a highly anticipated Hotel Jazeera Group protest,” Abdulle said.

Turkey accused of supporting dictatorship in Somalia

Turkey’s growing involvement in Somalia’s internal politics has faced criticism from several Somali academics and political figures in recent months.

On April 16, Somali professor and senator Abdi Ismail Samatar accused Ankara of exploiting Somalia’s resources and supporting authoritarian rule.

“Turkish vessels are prospecting and drilling for oil in Somali waters. This is exceptionally alarming as the entire affair is illegal. President Erdogan and his people know that the so-called defense and petroleum agreements between Türkiye and Somalia are fraudulent. The Somali Parliament has yet to see the texts of the two ‘agreements.’ Despite knowing these facts, the Turkish leadership has decided to ignore them and proceed with the exploration. This behavior and actions make Türkiye resources pirates. No amount of masquerading will alter the facts as well as Ankara’s guilt in conniving with an illegitimate and derelict Regime in Mogadishu,” Samatar said.

“Second, and equally troubling, is the use of Türkiye military resources by Villa Somalia to shore up the sinfully corrupt dictatorship in Mogadishu whose tenure ends in less than a month. Ankara has found solace in silence, but the Somali people will not forget Türkiye’s great deception,” he added.

Samatar said many Somalis still appreciated the humanitarian support Turkey provided during earlier crises but warned that Ankara’s strategic role now appeared increasingly political.

“The Somali people fondly remember the kindness of the Turkish people at the hour of their need a decade and half ago, but it now appears that the Ankara government’s stealth agenda was a cover for its lust to create a neo-colony in the Horn of Africa,” he said.

The accusations intensified after federal forces seized control of Southwest State interim capital earlier this year following fighting around the city of Baidoa.

Opposition figures alleged that Turkish drones and helicopters supported federal operations and provided real-time intelligence during the advance toward Baidoa.

Critics argued that the operations demonstrated how deeply Ankara had become involved in Somalia’s internal power struggles.

Turkish media coverage draws criticism

Opposition figures and critics have also accused Turkish state media outlets of promoting coverage favorable to Mohamud’s administration.

Media organizations including Anadolu Agency and TRT have frequently highlighted the Somali government’s security and diplomatic achievements, coverage critics say reflects Ankara’s growing political alignment with Villa Somalia.

Government supporters reject those accusations and argue Turkey remains one of Somalia’s most important international partners, providing military training, infrastructure investment and humanitarian assistance.

Turkey has maintained a major presence in Somalia since 2011, when then-Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Mogadishu during a devastating famine, becoming one of the first non-African leaders to travel to the country in decades.

Since then, Ankara has become deeply involved in Somalia’s reconstruction, military training and economic sectors.

Questions over Western silence

The crisis has also intensified scrutiny of what critics describe as the muted response of Western governments.

Before the current standoff escalated, the International Crisis Group urged the United States and the European Union to pressure President Mohamud into reaching an inclusive electoral agreement with the opposition.

The organization said Western governments could use their security investments in Somalia as leverage or impose visa restrictions if negotiations failed.

But critics say Washington and Brussels remained largely silent even as Somalia moved closer to another civil war.

Analysts have repeatedly compared the current crisis with 2021, when the international community strongly opposed a parliamentary extension of former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s mandate.

At the time, the United States and European partners condemned the extension and called for inclusive elections.

Critics are now questioning why similar pressure has not been applied after President Mohamud publicly confirmed parliament had extended his mandate by one year.

Somalia faces growing fears of instability

Political analysts increasingly warn that Somalia may be entering one of its most dangerous periods since the collapse of the central government in 1991.

The widening dispute over constitutional legitimacy, combined with political polarization, foreign involvement and militarization in Mogadishu, has raised fears of deeper instability in a country already struggling with insecurity and humanitarian crises.

Some analysts say the current trajectory resembles the tensions that preceded Somalia’s state collapse in 1990, when escalating political conflict and institutional breakdown triggered civil war, mass displacement and the destruction of state institutions.

The collapse of the latest negotiations has now left Somalia facing profound uncertainty over who holds legitimate authority, how elections will be organized and whether the country’s political leaders can still avoid a broader national rupture.

With opposition leaders refusing to recognize Mohamud’s extended mandate, international partners warning of deepening divisions and diplomatic mediation efforts failing to produce compromise, Somalia’s constitutional crisis appears increasingly likely to define the country’s political future in the months ahead.

“International community and external partners: Please support the political transition and pressure all parties to agree on a way forward.”