Drier than usual conditions with warmer than average temperatures expected in the Greater Horn of Africa
The June to September 2026 rainfall outlook indicates a high likelihood of below-normal rainfall across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa.
Black News 
Weather
The horn and Eastern African regions should brace for drier weather and warmer temperatures and signs of pending El-Nino continue to become apparent.
The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), together with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) from member states, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and partners, have issued the regional climate outlook for the rainfall season which falls between June and September 2026.
The forecast was officially released during the 73rd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 73), which took place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia between the 18th and 19th of May 2026.
Rainfall Outlook
The June to September 2026 rainfall outlook indicates a high likelihood of below-normal rainfall across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa.
This is where June, July, August and September (JJAS) period is the main precipitation season, particularly in South Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia, Djibouti, much of Eritrea, Sudan and western and coastal Kenya.
The highest likelihood of below-normal rainfall is projected over central, northeastern and northwestern Ethiopia, southern Sudan, and northern Uganda, where probabilities exceed 60 percent, with peaks reaching up to 80 percent in northeastern Ethiopia.
In contrast, isolated areas in northern Sudan, southeastern Ethiopia, and southern and northern Somalia are expected to receive enhanced rainfall.
Areas of northern Sudan, southern coastal Somalia and Kenya are expected to receive near-normal rainfall.
The forecast indicates an enhanced likelihood of a late onset in parts of South Sudan, Ethiopia and southern Sudan.
In contrast, a few localized areas, particularly over north-central Ethiopia and parts of central Sudan, are expected to experience near normal to earlier-than-normal onset.
Temperature Outlook
The temperature outlook indicates a higher likelihood of above-normal temperatures across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa.
The highest probabilities of warmer-than-normal conditions are indicated over northern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan, and Ethiopia.
The forecast points to a dominant warmer-than-usual season, with very low chances of below-normal temperatures across the region.
The evolving 2026 climate conditions closely resemble those experienced during the strong El Niño years of 1997 and 2023.
During both analogue years, several parts of Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, and western Kenya recorded below-normal rainfall during the June to September season, similar to the conditions currently forecast for 2026.
These past years provide useful guidance for preparedness and anticipatory action; however, this seasonal forecast remains the main reference for planning and decision-making.
The forecast below-normal rainfall may have implications, particularly across key sectors with likely impacts on rainfed agriculture, water availability, livestock systems, hydropower generation, food security, conflict, and public health.
Stakeholders are therefore encouraged to utilize the forecast information and advisories to support early action, risk reduction, and climate-informed planning.
Speaking during the opening of Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum, the IGAD Deputy Executive Secretary Mohamed Abdi Ware, emphasized the need to translate climate information into timely action and preparedness measures across the region.
“Across the region, we are increasingly shifting the conversation from ‘early warning’ to ‘early warning linked to anticipatory action,’ recognizing that climate information must ultimately support action and preparedness to make a difference.”
Mr Fetene Teshome, Director General of the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute, called for sustained investment in climate services and regional cooperation to strengthen resilience across the Greater Horn of Africa.
“We must continue to invest in and expand systems capable of generating knowledge-based, user-tailored climate information at both the national and regional levels.”
