Vehicle sales drop as dealer activity cools

Namibian vehicle sales fell 20.6% month on month to 1 320 units in April, though cumulative four-month sales remained the strongest since 2018.

Some 1 662 units were sold in March, with sales still advancing 5.7% year on year from 1 249 units in April 2025.
Simonis Storm Securities says the pullback was both expected and constructive.

“March produced the strongest turnout for the month in more than a decade, propelled by lumpy commercial fleet deliveries, an aggressive rental build, and front-loaded passenger volumes.

“April’s sales reflect the natural unwinding of that surge rather than a softening of the underlying demand impulse,” the analysts say.

On a cumulative basis, the first four months of 2026 closed at 5 155 units, 10.6% ahead of the 4 661 units recorded in the equivalent period of 2025, and the strongest year-to-date showing since 2018.

“The April figure was the strongest April print since 2016 and comfortably above the 951 unit trailing five-year mean for the month.

According to the analysts, commercial vehicle sales were far better than passenger volumes, registering 757 combined units across light, medium, heavy and extra heavy categories, excluding buses, against 915 in March and 578 in April 2025.

The passenger category recorded 558 units, a decline of 25.2% from March’s two-year high and 16.7% below the corresponding month of 2025.

“The passenger softness does not signal that household demand recovery has stalled. It is rather an unwind of the front-loaded fleet and dealer activity that distorted March, when Toyota and Volkswagen combined for 535 passenger units against just 336 in April,” Simonis says.

Monthly passenger volumes should range between 550 and 700 units over the next two quarters, as tourism-linked deliveries and corporate fleet activity continue.

In the commercial sector, light commercial vehicle sales stood at 644 units to represent a 19.2% contraction compared to March, but it remains 28.3% above April 2025 and is one of the strongest April light commercial vehicle readings on record.

Toyota’s Hilux franchise alone accounted for 478 units, a level of category dominance that competing entrants are struggling to match.

Ford’s Ranger contributed a stable 60 units, JAC continued its grinding share build with 23 units, and Volkswagen’s Amarok recorded 22.

The standout was the extra heavy vehicle category, which advanced to 68 units from 57 in March and just 39 in April 2025.

Scania nearly doubled its monthly sales to 19 units, Shacman had 18 units in its second month of reported sales, while Powerstar contributed 14 and Volvo Trucks six.

Medium commercial vehicles advanced to 34 units, up 21.4% from March and 25.9% year on year, with FAW capturing 13 units, Toyota 10 and Hino five.

The heavy commercial category registered 11 units after March’s outsized 33 unit print. Bus volumes stood at five units – an unusually active month for a small and inherently volatile category.

The most consequential development in April was a clear breakthrough in Chinese brand penetration.

Chinese and Chinese-linked manufacturers collectively sold 218 units, lifting their share to 16.5% from 13.2% in March and an estimated nine to 11 percent average over the prior 12 months.

Japanese manufacturers retained their dominant position at roughly 64% of the market, fractionally below the level recorded in March. Toyota alone accounted for 753 units across passenger, light commercial vehicles and medium commercial vehicles, equivalent to 57% of the total Namibian market in a single month.

German manufacturers experienced the sharpest correction. Combined volumes of 126 units, a 40.6% decline from March’s 212 units, lowered the German share to 9.5%.

The post Vehicle sales drop as dealer activity cools appeared first on The Namibian.