Food Insecurity Looms Larger as Middle East Crisis Pushes Fertilizer Costs to New Highs

The economic fallout from the conflict in the Middle East is threatening to deepen food insecurity across Africa, with rising energy, transport, and fertilizer costs expected to place additional pressure on countries already struggling with hunger, inflation, and fiscal constraints, according to a new World Bank report.

The June 2026 edition of the Global Economic Prospects report states that the conflict has already disrupted commodity markets, driven up prices of critical agricultural inputs, and increased the risk that millions more people could face food insecurity in the coming years.

The document reveals that the conflict has triggered “major disruptions in commodity markets, particularly for oil, liquefied natural gas, and fertilizer,” adding that commodity prices are now expected to rise by more than a fifth in 2026, reversing the decline that had previously been anticipated.

The report notes that fertilizer prices are projected to be especially affected, with its authors estimating a 38 percent rise in costs.

The World Bank cautions that the consequences extend far beyond commodity markets.

“The conflict nonetheless poses significant food security risks. It directly threatens food security in the Middle East by disrupting food imports in the Gulf region, raising domestic food inflation as supplies are rerouted through longer and more costly overland channels,” reads the document.

Under adverse scenarios, the World Bank estimates that up to an additional 70 million people could face acute hunger and food insecurity over the forecast period.

The Bank said that the threat comes at a time when food insecurity was already worsening globally.

“Even prior to the Middle East conflict, food insecurity was rising. As of 2025, the share of the global population in severe food insecurity stood at about 12 percent, roughly two percentage points above the pre-pandemic level in 2019,” reads the report.

The document notes that the increase has been concentrated in fragile and conflict affected countries, many of which it says have yet to recover from the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and other shocks.

Across emerging and developing economies, the World Bank’s experts estimate that the number of people facing severe food insecurity rose by about 220 million between 2019 and 2025 and caution that the figure could increase even further.

“This total could rise by a further 35 to 70 million by the end of 2028, as the conflict in the Middle East intensifies an already acute global food crisis in the context of growing food and fertilizer price pressures,” reads the report.

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is identified as one of the regions most vulnerable to these developments.

“Higher fertilizer and food prices, together with raised energy and transport costs, would particularly hurt lower-income households because of the outsized weight of these essentials in their consumption baskets and a general lack of financial buffers. This risks a further rise in poverty and food insecurity, particularly in SSA and low-income countries,” reads the report.

According to the document, for Sub-Saharan Africa, the economic outlook has already been revised downward as the impact of the conflict spreads through commodity markets.

The report states that growth in the region is now forecast at four percent in 2026, a downgrade of 0.3 percentage points from the Bank’s January projections. While oil exporting economies may benefit from higher energy prices, the report notes that most countries in the region will face worsening conditions.

It states, “Non-oil-exporting economies, on the other hand, will face higher fuel, fertilizer, and transport costs, driving up inflation, especially food prices.”

The World Bank says food insecurity in the region remains elevated and is expected to worsen further. The report also highlights growing concerns among low income countries, many of which are located in Africa.

“Food insecurity, already at record levels, is set to increase further because of the conflict,” the World Bank states. “Risks would be amplified if the conflict worsens, as disruptions to key shipping routes and higher fertilizer prices would exacerbate supply bottlenecks and raise import prices. Higher food prices and slower income growth would place particular strain on vulnerable households’ access to food.”

The report said that “the effects will likely become more apparent in subsequent years, as this year’s harvests are mostly unaffected and farmers may delay fertilizer purchases until prices stabilize.”