Iran war comes with a price Americans can’t afford
On Feb. 28, Americans woke up to find their country at war with Iran. Breaking news alerts carried word that the United States had joined Israel in an unprecedented joint military operation aimed at overturning the Iranian government. The human cost is already jarring: three weeks in, Al Jazeera’s live tracker counts more than 1,400 […] The post Iran war comes with a price Americans can’t afford appeared first on St. Louis American.
Black News 
On Feb. 28, Americans woke up to find their country at war with Iran. Breaking news alerts carried word that the United States had joined Israel in an unprecedented joint military operation aimed at overturning the Iranian government.
The human cost is already jarring: three weeks in, Al Jazeera’s live tracker counts more than 1,400 dead in Iran, at least 15 in Israel, 19 in Gulf states and 11 American soldiers.
But for millions of Americans already struggling through an affordability crisis, a different and urgent question is forming: What will this war cost their families at the pump, in the store and in their economic futures?
The shadow of wars past
We know that wars are costly. Having extricated ourselves from protracted Middle East conflicts just three years ago, we have clear reference points — and they are not reassuring.
The Costs of War Project at Brown University’s Watson Institute estimates that from late 2001 through fiscal year 2022, the U.S. spent or obligated $8 trillion on post-9/11 wars: $5.8 trillion in direct costs and at least $2.2 trillion in future veterans’ care through 2050. Every dollar not spent on schools, bridges or health care.
Advocates argue this conflict will be shorter. President Donald Trump has promised resolution in weeks or months. His supporters point to past targeted strikes as models of swift action. The math tells a different story.
Operation Midnight Hammer, the June 2025 Iran strikes, cost an estimated $2.04 billion to $2.26 billion. Regional operations cost another $4.8 billion to $7.2 billion, with the January–February 2026 naval buildup adding $450 million to $650 million.
In total, from October 2023 through September 2025, the U.S. spent between $9.65 billion and $12.07 billion on military activity in the region — before this war began.
When oil prices become war costs
Americans are already paying beyond military spending. In about a week, oil prices surged 43% to more than $100 a barrel.
As of March 13, gas reached a nationwide average of $3.63 per gallon, up from $2.92 just weeks earlier. Economists estimate every $10 rise in crude adds about 25 cents at the pump, with ripple effects across the economy.
Nearly 20% of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran does not need to win a war to impose economic pain — it only needs to threaten that passage.
A war arriving during an affordability crisis
This war does not arrive in a vacuum. Before the first bomb dropped, consumers were already absorbing the largest tariff increases as a share of gross domestic product since 1993.
The estimated cost is $600 to $800 per household in 2026, rising toward $1,000 if tariffs become permanent, according to Yale Budget Lab analysis. Inflation had cooled to 2.4% but remained above the Federal Reserve’s target, limiting its ability to respond.
The war did not create this affordability crisis. It accelerates one already underway.
What the war could cost American families
Beyond the debt, this war will drive higher prices in everyday goods and fuel. Things are going to cost more — at a time millions can least afford it.
For a family earning about $85,000, projections suggest added costs of $2,565 to $3,471 annually. For lower-income families earning around $30,000, the increase is $2,143 to $2,548. These estimates are not exhaustive.
The lessons history keeps teaching
History offers three lessons.
First, the United States does not have a reliable track record of quick exits from Middle East conflicts.
Second, the financial costs of war consistently exceed early projections.
Third, those costs fall hardest on the people least able to absorb them — the poor, the underemployed and those already struggling with rising prices.
Sadly, there is a war that weary Americans are urgently waiting to see fought. It is the war on affordability. Right now, painfully few shots are being fired on that front.
Eric Morrissette is a Joint Center senior fellow and former acting undersecretary of commerce under the Biden-Harris administration, where he oversaw the Minority Business Development Agency.
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