Middle East conflict tightens fertiliser exports as Africa’s food security wavers
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is tightening global fertiliser supply chains and pushing prices from about $500 to more than $700 per tonne, heightening concerns over food security across Africa and other import-dependent regions.
Black News 
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The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is tightening global fertiliser supply chains and pushing prices from about $500 to more than $700 per tonne, heightening concerns over food security across Africa and other import-dependent regions.
- Rising tensions in the Middle East are disrupting global fertiliser supply chains, driving prices sharply higher.
- Africa, which relies heavily on imports, faces heightened exposure to supply shocks and rising input costs.
- Experts warn that reduced access to fertiliser could significantly cut crop yields and fuel food inflation.
- Policymakers are being urged to adopt coordinated strategies to stabilise supply and protect farmers.
Analysts say instability around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime route for global energy and commodity flows, is disrupting shipments of key agricultural inputs and adding pressure to already fragile supply networks. The resulting uncertainty is expected to accelerate food inflation and strain the availability of staples such as maize, rice and wheat.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), even a 10% reduction in fertiliser availability could reduce maize, rice and wheat output in sub-Saharan Africa by as much as 25%. The agency also warns that this shock could trigger food inflation of up to 8% across the continent.
“The ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran is already affecting global supply chains, with fertiliser markets among the hardest hit,” said Ayodele Ayowole, a policy analyst.
The disruption is affecting key fertiliser components, including ammonia, urea, phosphate and sulphur, all of which are essential for crop production. With around 80% of fertiliser used in sub-Saharan Africa imported, the region remains highly exposed to external shocks, particularly as freight costs, financing constraints and logistics bottlenecks continue to push up landed prices.
Recent export restrictions from China, one of the world’s largest fertiliser producers, have further tightened global supply, contributing to a reported 40% surge in urea prices. Analysts say this has intensified competition for available supplies, leaving African importers with fewer options and higher costs.
“For many governments, fertiliser security is closely tied to food security, which is in turn linked to broader economic and social stability,” said Martin Fregene, an agricultural policy analyst.
The impact is most severe for smallholder farmers, who account for nearly 70% of food production in sub-Saharan Africa. Unlike larger commercial farms, smallholders typically lack the purchasing power or storage capacity to hedge against price spikes or secure early bulk purchases, making them highly vulnerable during global supply disruptions.
A report by BusinessDay warned that sustained tensions in the Iran conflict could intensify fertiliser price volatility and feed into broader food inflation. The concerns followed Iran’s announcement of a ban on exports of food and agricultural products as geopolitical tensions escalated with Israel and the United States.
Trade data from the United Nations COMTRADE database shows that Iran exported fertilisers worth about $169.11 million to Nigeria in 2022. Nigeria imported roughly 560,000 metric tonnes of fertiliser in 2025, with volumes expected to rise further in 2026 as domestic demand grows.
Policy experts are now urging African governments to strengthen fertiliser stockpiles, expand subsidies for farmers, and improve regional coordination to cushion against external shocks.
According to recent analysis cited by Al Jazeera, longer-term resilience will depend on better market intelligence, coordinated procurement and stronger regional partnerships with major producers such as Morocco and Nigeria.
“Africa needs to strengthen market intelligence. Real-time tracking of trade flows, shipping routes and price trends helps policymakers anticipate disruptions,” one report noted, adding that coordinated regional reserves could help stabilise markets during shortages.
