Namibia’s Export Opportunities and the Challenge Over Policy Certainty

Namibia’s recent inclusion under China’s zero-tariff market access arrangement represents a major development in the country’s external trade relations and export strategy.

The development comes at a time when trade relations between Namibia and China have expanded significantly over recent years, reflecting deepening economic and commercial ties between the two countries.

In 2025, total bilateral trade between the two countries exceeded N$39 billion, making China Namibia’s second-largest trading partner. Trade relations between the two countries have strengthened over the years, driven in part by increased Chinese demand for Namibia’s uranium exports.

Namibia continued to maintain a trade surplus with China, with exports to the Chinese market accounting for 18.1% of total exports, valued at N$22.7 billion in 2025. Meanwhile, imports from China constituted 11.9% of Namibia’s total imports during the same period, with the value of goods imported from China amounting to N$17.8 billion in 2025.

The structure of Namibia’s exports to China in 2025 demonstrates the country’s continued dependence on mineral exports. Total exports to China were dominated by uranium ores and concentrates, followed by nickel ores and concentrates, cobalt oxides and hydroxides, lead ores and copper ores.

Importantly, most of these mineral products were already entering China under zero or very low tariff conditions prior to the new arrangement, largely because China depends heavily on imported raw materials for industrial production, energy security and battery manufacturing.

Against this broader trade backdrop, the introduction of zero-tariff access creates an important opportunity for Namibia to diversify its export basket beyond minerals and increase the contribution of agriculture, fisheries and horticulture exports to the Chinese market.

The arrangement substantially improves the competitiveness of Namibian exports relative to suppliers that continue to face most favoured nation tariff rates.

The products expected to benefit most include beef, mutton, goat meat, seafood, grapes, dates, blueberries and deep-sea red crab.

Prior to the introduction of the zero-tariff arrangement, these products attracted relatively high Chinese import duties.
Beef entering the Chinese market carried tariffs ranging between 12% and 25%, while mutton and sheep meat faced tariffs of between 12% and 23%. Goat meat was previously subject to tariffs of approximately 20%, grapes 13%, dates 15%, blueberries up to 30% and frozen deep-sea red crab approximately 7%.

The largest competitive gains are expected in products that previously attracted high tariffs. Blueberries, for example, previously faced duties of up to 30%, representing one of the highest tariff burdens among the identified products.

The removal of this tariff immediately improves the commercial viability of Namibian blueberry exports to the Chinese market. Similarly, beef, mutton and goat meat stand to gain significantly from tariff reductions ranging between 12% and 25%, especially in light of growing Chinese demand for imported protein products.

China is currently one of the world’s largest importers of agricultural and food products. The country imports millions of tonnes of beef annually, while demand for imported seafood, premium fruits and specialty protein products continues to expand alongside rising household incomes and changing consumer preferences. Even a modest increase in Namibia’s market share could, therefore, generate significant export earnings, investment opportunities and broader economic benefits.

However, Namibia will not enter the market without competition. In beef exports, Namibia will compete directly against major suppliers such as Brazil and Australia, while Australia and New Zealand dominate China’s sheep meat market.

In fruits such as blueberries and grapes, Peru and Chile remain highly established suppliers with mature logistics systems and long-standing commercial relationships in the Chinese market.

In seafood products, countries such as Russia and Canada continue to maintain strong positions. Namibia will need to compete not only on price advantages arising from tariff preferences, but also on product quality, consistency, traceability and reliability of supply.

From an international trade perspective, the arrangement has the potential to improve Namibia’s export performance in many ways. First, the elimination of tariffs is likely to increase export volumes and export earnings by lowering the cost of Namibian products in China.

Second, it supports market diversification by reducing dependence on traditional export markets. Third, expanded exports to China could strengthen Namibia’s trade balance through increased foreign exchange inflows and improved terms of trade.
The arrangement also presents broader economic opportunities beyond immediate export growth. Increased access to the Chinese market could stimulate investment in livestock production, fisheries processing, horticulture, cold-chain logistics, storage infrastructure, packaging, transportation and export certification systems.
The multiplier effects across the economy could contribute to employment creation, rural income growth, industrial upgrading and value addition in export-oriented sectors.

Namibia’s comparative advantage lies not only in tariff preferences but also in the quality and reputation of its products. Namibia is internationally recognised for free-range livestock production systems, disease-free animal health standards, sustainably managed fisheries and favourable climatic conditions for high-value horticultural production.

However, tariff preferences alone are insufficient to guarantee export success. Compliance with sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) requirements remains one of the most critical determinants of effective market access to China. SPS protocols regulate food safety, animal health, plant health, traceability and quarantine requirements, and exporters must fully comply with Chinese import regulations before products can enter the market.

In practical terms, tariff access without SPS approval effectively limits commercial access. Encouragingly, Namibia and China have already concluded SPS protocols for products such as beef, chevon and mutton, thereby creating a foundation for expanded livestock product exports.

Nevertheless, important challenges remain for other products, particularly high-value horticultural exports such as blueberries and grapes. Discussions and negotiations surrounding SPS approval for these products have remained under consideration for approximately two years to date.

Delays in finalising these agreements risk reducing Namibia’s ability to fully benefit from the current tariff arrangement while competing countries continue strengthening their presence in the Chinese market.

For horticultural exporters, timing is especially critical. Blueberries and grapes represent high-value products with strong growth potential in China due to rising consumer demand for imported fruits. Without expedited SPS approvals, Namibia may struggle to capture market opportunities created by the zero-tariff arrangement.

An equally important consideration relates to the duration and predictability of this policy arrangement by China. Reports indicate that the zero-tariff offer is limited to a two-year period and is reportedly effective from 1 May 2026 to 30 April 2028.

While this provides a short-term trade advantage, it raises questions regarding long-term policy certainty and investor confidence.

Large-scale investments in export-oriented agriculture, fisheries, horticulture, logistics and processing infrastructure typically require long investment horizons, stable market conditions and predictable trade policies.

Investments in orchards, packhouses, cold storage facilities, meat processing plants, fishing operations and export logistics systems involve substantial capital expenditure and often require several years before achieving commercial returns.

Export-oriented investments are highly sensitive to policy certainty.
Temporary trade arrangements may discourage large-scale capital commitments, particularly in sectors requiring long production cycles and substantial upfront infrastructure investment.

Investors and exporters generally seek durable and predictable market access conditions before committing significant resources to export-oriented production systems. The absence of long-term certainty may limit the scale of investment required to fully exploit the opportunity.

To maximise the benefits of the zero-tariff arrangement, Namibia will require a coordinated approach. Priority actions should include accelerating SPS negotiations for pending products, strengthening export certification and traceability systems, improving logistics and cold-chain infrastructure, supporting export readiness among producers and engaging China on the possibility of longer-term trade arrangements that provide greater certainty for investors.

Ultimately, the zero-tariff arrangement presents Namibia with a rare opportunity to expand exports and diversify trade. However, the long-term success of the initiative will depend not only on tariff preferences, but also on the country’s ability to secure SPS approvals, improve competitiveness, attract investment and ensure policy certainty.

– Robeth Simon is the trade and investment policy manager at the Namibia Investment Promotion and Development Board (NIPDB) and Hasekiel Johannes is a NIPDB market access and export promotion consultant.

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